NICA, 'Philippinedization' and Agent X-44

BASED ON OSINT (open-source intelligence), the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) -- our version of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) -- comes across as a bland spy organization that exists in relative obscurity, as do its spies.

Anonymity is the name of the game in spycraft, however. The history of espionage has proven the most effective intelligence agents are also the most inconspicuous. Spies whose covers are blown wind-up dead or behind bars. Agents stay alive only by remaining "secret." 

"Superstar spies" like "Tony Falcon, Agent X-44" (our 1960's version of James Bond played by the late Tony Ferrer) and James Bond, Agent 007 himself would be dead meat in the actual world of espionage. True spies are hardly ever flamboyant, and are forced by the demands of their lethal trade to remain anonymous wallflowers.

Looked at from this perspective, it seems NICA and its spies are doing a good job at masking their existence. Most Filipinos don't even know this spy agency exists or what it does. NICA’s website is bare bones and boring. There’s hardly any substantive information about NICA on search engines and large language models.

Nice work, NICA, for staying out of the public eye and keeping your local and global operations in the shadows like all good spy agencies should. This murkiness, however, conceals an intelligence agency that can be compared to a flawed double-edged sword -- deathly sharp on one edge and blunt on the other -- based on publicly available information. 

NICA's competence lies in its domestic counterinsurgency and anti-crime operations where it has over 70 years’ experience. This is the sharp edge of the NICA sword. On the other hand, NICA is a novice in foreign intelligence operations compared to the "Big Boys" such as the CIA and the Ministry of State Security of the People’s Republic of China. There is no public record or evidence to suggest NICA conducts covert and clandestine operations outside the Philippines, as can be gleaned from OSINT. International inexperience is the blunt edge of the NICA sword.

Sharpening the sword

The good news is the blunt edge is getting “un-blunted.” NICA and the other arms of the Philippines' security services are shifting further away from local counterinsurgency and moving deeper into the mostly unexplored terrain of global geopolitics and strategic intelligence.  

A national security reorientation by the administration of Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. against threats to our territorial integrity means NICA is bolstering intelligence activities against China. This is now seeing Filipino spycraft and its tools (human, electronic, signals, imagery and technical intelligence) brought to bear to protect our frontiers against Chinese aggression, especially in the West Philippine Sea.

In June 2022, NICA Director-General Ricardo de Leon said he wanted NICA to focus on our West Philippine Sea dispute with China. He said the country should strengthen its military presence in this hotspot to assert its sovereignty over Philippine waters.

“We also have to give focus on the West Philippine Sea,” he pointed out. “Any development with our neighbors, especially in that area, will certainly affect domestic security. We have to view everything, integrate, and harmonize our efforts.”

“We need to strengthen our security forces in the West Philippine Sea so that we can guarantee the safety of our fishermen.”

De Leon said NICA “(will look) at our own national interest as a priority.”  He thanked the president for supporting NICA’s acquisition of equipment and facilities that will allow it to strengthen and protect the Philippines’ territorial integrity.

A retired Police Lieutenant General of the Philippine National Police, de Leon was appointed to his post as NICA boss by the younger Marcos in June 2022.

This primacy of national sovereignty is reflected on the NICA website. It’s the number one strategic objective in NICA’s “8-Point National Intelligence Agenda and Strategic Objectives for 2022 to 2028.” The second and third objectives also support the aim of defending national sovereignty:  building an agile organization staffed with competent people and accelerating operations to address all national security threats. The acronym for NICA’s agenda and strategic objectives is S.O.A.R. H.I.G.H.

NICA currently defines its mission as, “To take the lead in directing, coordinating and integrating all government activities involving national intelligence,” which is roughly similar to its original mission crafted in 1949.

The first line of defense

One offshoot of its "think-local" bias is that NICA has remained "bogged down in internal security efforts against various insurgent groups” that could hinder its plans to prepare for regional challenges, contends Joshua Espeña, a Resident Fellow at the nonprofit policy research firm, International Development and Security Cooperation, based in Manila. Espeña said “much is unknown about its (NICA’s) efforts in foreign intelligence collection and analysis at the strategic level.”

NICA’s record in strategic intelligence was faulted for being "ineffective in intercepting Chinese espionage (in the Philippines).” This appreciation came from Rhon Ethelbert Ducos and Amadeus Quiaoit, co-authors of the article, "Tagging the Red Dragon: The Future of the Philippines’ Strategic Intelligence," published in the May 2022 edition of "The Diplomat," an international current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific. 

Ducos and Quiaoit advocate "transitioning strategic intelligence from the dominance of internal security towards a greater focus on external security as the first line of defense in the Philippines’ national security strategy." They see imagery intelligence (IMINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) as best suited to unveiling warship and maritime militia deployments of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea, as well as the strategic intentions of its command.

These outcomes become possible if NICA reorganizes itself "in parallel with the transforming strategic environment." Reorganization should include streamlining counterintelligence operations and adopting organizational models similar to those in other foreign intelligence agencies.

These moves should better enable NICA to combat Chinese intelligence and cyber operations against the Armed Forces of the Philippines, as well as the Department of Foreign Affairs and Department of National Defense. Intelligence operations against the PROC were derailed by the pro-China bent of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who in October 2016 announced the Philippines’ economic and military “separation” from the United States and its alignment with China. 

Ducos and Quiaoit also contend Duterte’s dalliance with China led to an influx of illegal Chinese immigrants, “who potentially represent a host of homeland security threats.” Duterte’s National Security Adviser, Hermogenes Esperon Jr., in 2019 said he considered the influx of mainland Chinese due to Philippine Online Gambling Operations (POGOs) a threat to national security.

Ducos and Quiaoit argue NICA's inexperience against foreign foes "invites institutional weakness, and such weaknesses invites external aggression" based on anecdotal evidence. As a solution, they advocate external security must become the first line of defense in the Philippines’ national security strategy. They warn Chinese espionage is a challenge the Philippines’ entire apparatus of state must prepare to resolutely combat.

“Philippinedization”

Ducos and Quiaoit declare the Philippines fell victim to a process now known in geopolitics as “Philippinedization,” which sounds like the Asian version of Finlandization but isn't, said the man that coined this term. Philippinedization is a portmanteau created by Chester Cabalza Ph.D. Cabalza and Espeña co-authored the book, "The Rise of Philippinedization: Philippinedization is not Finlandization," published in 2021. 

As defined by Cabalza, "Philippinedization is the process whereby a weaker state, backed by a powerful country, goes through great lengths in temporarily refraining from opposing a neighboring great power by resorting to economic and diplomatic rapprochements at the strategic level, but strengthening its national security infrastructure on the operational level with an eye for potential conflict in the foreseeable future."

This definition stands in stark contrast to Finlandization, which refers to the undue influence the influence the former Soviet Union wielded on its neighbor Finland. Coined in 1961, this word has come to mean "the process whereby a country is induced to favor, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it." 

Philippinedization was the norm under Duterte. Marcos has moved sharply away from Philippinedization towards more assertiveness against China. His current attitude likely means the emasculation of Philippinedization, and its replacement with a more muscular foreign policy in concert with the Philippines' traditional military allies. What this change of direction adds-up to is a further un-blunting of the NICA sword’s dull edge.

NICA and EDCA

Marcos has left no doubt as to his true strategic colors. In February 2023, he granted the U.S. armed forces access to four more Philippine military camps, apart from the five existing locations agreed on in the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA. 

Under the original EDCA signed in 2014, the national government and the U.S. will enhance facilities at the Cesar Basa Air Base in Floridablanca, Pampanga; the Fort Magsaysay Military Reservation in Nueva Ecija; the Lumbia Airfield in Cagayan de Oro City; the Antonio Bautista Air Base in Puerto Princesa, Palawan and the Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu. 

Marcos said four new sites have now been identified. He said these bases will also defend the country’s unprotected eastern coast and the Philippines' continental shelf.

“So, there are four extra sites scattered around the Philippines. There are some in the North, there are some around Palawan, there are some further South. So iba-iba talaga (They’re really in different areas),” he said.

EDCA allows U.S. troops access to designated Philippine military facilities. It also gives the Americans the right to build facilities and preposition equipment, aircraft and warships. EDCA does not allow permanent basing of U.S. troops in the Philippines.

Marcos has committed his administration to upholding the international ruling in favor of the Philippines and against China over the West Philippine Sea. On July 12, 2016, an Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague constituted under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention delivered a unanimous decision firmly rejecting China's expansive South China Sea maritime claims and its nine-dash line as having no basis in international law.

The Tribunal affirmed China has no lawful claim to the area determined by the Arbitral Tribunal to be part of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. China and the Philippines are legally bound to comply with this decision. Needless to say, China has rejected this decision.

National intelligence

Under Executive Order 235 that created it, NICA is responsible for “coordinating all government activities with respect to national intelligence and preparing intelligence estimates and summaries of both the local and foreign situations to be made available to the President and his policy-making body.” This legislation was signed by President Elpidio Quirino on July 10, 1949.

President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. abolished NICA and established the National Intelligence and Security Authority (NISA) on November 16, 1972, two months after he declared Martial Law. Under Presidential Decree 51, NISA had the same mission as NICA but was granted broader powers

NISA was abolished by President Corazon Aquino following the People Power Revolution of February 1986. She reestablished NICA as we know it today through Executive Order 246 signed July 24, 1987.  EO 246 made NICA “the focal point for the direction, coordination and integration of government activities involving intelligence, and the preparation of intelligence estimates of local and foreign situations for the formulation of national policies by the President.”

EO 246 also created the Directorate for Operations headed by the Assistant Director-General for Operations to take charge of information collection. It also made NICA responsible for preparing intelligence estimates about local and foreign situations. These reports serve as inputs used in day-to-day decision-making and long-term policy decisions by the President, the National Security Council and the Cabinet.

The presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001-2010) saw the further reorganization of NICA and the addition of new functions affecting intelligence gathering, counterintelligence and anti-terrorism.  Administrative Order 68 (AO 68) issued in 2003 gave NICA “principal authority to direct, coordinate and integrate all government activities involving national intelligence and continue to serve as the focal point for the preparation of intelligence estimates of local and foreign situations for the formulation of national policies by the President. As lead intelligence collection agency of the national government it shall operate directly under the Office of the President and shall be accountable to the President of the Republic of the Philippines.”

AO 68 created the Directorate for Counterintelligence to lead the national government’s counterintelligence operations. It also established the National Intelligence Committee (NIC) as an advisory body to the Director-General for the coordination, integration and fusion of all intelligence activities. NIC is the principal adviser to the President on intelligence matters. The NICA of today is the sum total of these and other changes. 

Philippine Pharaohs: infrastructure as legacies of presidents past

 (Published in ENRICH magazine, 2023)

MUCH LIKE THE ANCIENT EGYPTIAN Pharaohs of the Old Kingdom that built the Pyramids, Philippine presidents since the Commonwealth have turned to building infrastructure to cement their political legacies in the consciousness of their countrymen.

In this sense, the costly and oftentimes contentious roads, buildings, bridges, seaports, airports and other public works built by seven Philippine presidents from Manuel L. Quezon to Ferdinand E. Marcos can be regarded as ostentatious memorials intent on proclaiming the greatness of the men -- the Philippine Pharaohs -- that built them.

Thus, the epitaph to Quezon's infrastructure spree might read: "In honor of Pres. Manuel L. Quezon, the greatest builder of roads in Philippine history before the advent of the Republic, and builder of the North-South Circumferential Road, now known as Epifanio de los Santos Avenue".

The inscription to Pres. Carlos Garcia's infrastructure program might declare: "Let it be known that the Pan-Philippine Highway -- the largest road building project in Philippine history -- was planned in 1961 during the administration of Pres. Carlos P. Garcia".

That of Pres. Ferdinand E. Marcos might proclaim: "Recall that the administration of Pres. Ferdinand E. Marcos built more concrete roads than any other administration from 1900 to 1965".

It might be useful to know what claims to infrastructure greatness were made by past presidents who served from 1935 to 1986 under the Commonwealth and the Philippine Constitution of 1935 (as amended), when much of the infrastructure we still use today came into existence.

Quezon, the greatest infrastructure builder

Before the Commonwealth came into being on November 15, 1935, the colonial road systems bequeathed it by both the Spaniard colonizers (1521 to 1898) and American colonizers (1898 to 1946) can be rightly termed as primitive and completely inadequate.

Even by 1935, most “roads” in the Philippines were narrow dirt paths only wide enough to accommodate two carabao-drawn carts traveling in opposite directions. Manila and a few other cities had asphalted or macadam roads built by the Americans. There were only 97.5 km of concrete roads in the entire country in 1935.

The few gravel paved roads in existence connected municipalities and cities. Better roads were paved with boulders, adobe blocks and gravel. Good roads to the provinces and within the provinces were practically non-existent.

William Howard Taft, U.S. Governor General of the Philippines from 1901 to 1903, remarked that "in no way were the Islands so backwards as in their lack of communication in the interior regions."

The Americans, who acquired the Philippines from Spain in 1898, reported only 1,450 km of the Spanish road system remained usable in the first decade of the 20th century. Practically the entire road system was built on the island of Luzon, which had the Walled City of Intramuros in Manila as its centerpiece of government. The Commonwealth was forced to upgrade the Philippines' primitive road net due to the increasing number of automobiles and other motor vehicles, which were driving commerce and economic growth.

The first motor vehicles (these from the United States) reached Philippine shores in 1910. Registration of motor vehicles began two years later.

In 1936, the Commonwealth reported the registration of 3,067 motor vehicles, up 17% from 1935. The total number of registered motor vehicles in 1936 consisted of 28,420 cars, 17,355 trucks and buses and 518 motorcycles. Out of this total, 14,213 cars, 5,017 trucks and 320 motorcycles were located in the capital city, Manila.

As for roads, the Department of Public Works and Communications reported gravel surface roads (or second class roads) comprised 80% of all national and provincial roads. It also said half of all gravel surface roads were only four meters wide. These were the roads, originally built for animal-drawn farm carts, which motor vehicles had to contend with.

When it bowed out of existence on July 4, 1946, the Commonwealth had attained eternal fame as the greatest builder of roads in Philippine history up until that time. It constructed practically all of the 26,000 km of national and provincial roads that came into existence from 1900 to 1950. It also made the largest investments in Philippine road building over that same 50 year period.

The Commonwealth’s intense zeal for road building was driven by Quezon, who strongly believed in the immense value of roads in boosting national economic progress. In his speech before the National Assembly on Feb. 1, 1938, Quezon said the Commonwealth's road building and public works programs were meant to give life to his belief that "adequate transportation facilities and other public works were necessary for the existence of a strong national life".

The following year saw the Commonwealth release PhP54.1 million for road and bridge construction, the largest sum allocated to these tasks before the Second World War. This amount was equivalent to 40% of all government appropriations for highway building from 1901 to 1941.

Among the most invaluable of Quezon's infrastructure projects was the North-South Circumferential Road (NSCR). This modern highway was widely called Highway 54 by Filipinos at the time before finally being officially renamed Epifanio de los Santos Avenue in a law passed by Congress in 1959.

“To facilitate the expansion of the City of Manila, in accordance with approved development plans, to provide more ready access to the suburbs and to permit the acquisition and development of parks contiguous thereto, an appropriation of P1,500,000 is recommended for the construction of a circumferential road around the City of Manila from the south end of the Taft Avenue Extension to the Balintawak Monument, via Welfareville, Camp Murphy, and San Francisco del Monte,” said Quezon in a speech about the NSCR before the National Assembly.

NSCR was to be the main road from Manila to Balintawak City, the new metropolis Quezon planned as the country's magnificent new capital city to replace Manila and center of the national government. This new city to be hacked out of forests to the north and northeast of Manila was also intended to become the most beautiful city in the Philippines.

Balintawak City "… politically shall be the seat of the national government; aesthetically the showplace of the nation -- a place that thousands of people will come and visit as the epitome of culture and spirit of the country; socially, a dignified concentration of human life, aspirations and endeavors and achievements; and economically, as a productive, self-contained community," according to Quezon.

The National Assembly, however, renamed Balintawak City as Quezon City over Quezon's strong objections. Quezon City was born on October 12, 1939 by virtue of Commonwealth Act 572.

Pres. Manuel L. Quezon

Roxas and rebuilding

The Republic of the Philippines came into existence on July 4, 1946, only nine months after the end of the Pacific War. Manuel A. Roxas, the republic's first president, had no recourse but to embark on a policy of national reconstruction with the help of the United States to rebuild the shattered economy. The U.S. initially set aside $136.9 million for rehabilitation.

His almost two-year stint as president saw Roxas concentrate on rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by the war. In his First State of the Nation Address on June 3, 1946, Roxas reported Philippine roads “are a shambles ... Bridges and roads are in crying need of reconstruction. The nation’s transportation facilities, as you all know, have been completely disrupted”.

During his term that lasted until April 15, 1948 when he died of a heart attack, Roxas also had to contend with the massive graft and corruption arising out of war reparations, criminal gangs and brigands, and a Communist insurgency that became a full-fledged rebellion by the communist Huks a few months after he took office. All of these slowed the pace of infrastructure reconstruction and rebuilding.

Quirino continues reconstruction

Pres. Elpidio Quirino (1948-1953) continued Roxas' reconstruction of public works but also built new roads and bridges. Quirino reported the construction of 663 km of new roads during his First State of the Nation Address on January 24, 1949. The following year saw him commit Filipino soldiers to fight in defense of South Korea in the Korean War that lasted from 1950 to 1953, or his entire tenure in office.

In his final State of the Nation Address in 1953, Quirino pointed out "Nearly 29,000 kilometers of roads and over 9,000 bridges are now being maintained and kept open to motor vehicle traffic. We have exerted every effort this past year to maintain and add to our system of highways and bridges and of other means of communications".

Magsaysay and farmer roads

"The Guy," a popular nickname for Pres. Ramon Magsaysay (1953-1957), who was Quirino’s successor, embarked on a program aimed at building concrete roads that would help farmers more easily transport their produce to municipal and city markets. This farm –to-market program was part of Magsaysay's five-year highway-building binge implemented by the Bureau of Public Works.

The year 1954 saw completion of the upgraded Highway 54. The new highway was a four-lane asphalted roadway from Balintawak in Quezon City to the highway's intersection with what is now the South Luzon Expressway.

Garcia's Pan-Philippine Highway

Pres. Carlos P. Garcia (1957-1961) boasted that during his administration, "The age of cement roads has come to the Philippines." He also said the use of cement instead of asphalt to build roads "will be far more economical in the long run”.

His first State of the Nation address saw Garcia promise to cement all national highways, including EDSA, and set aside PhP35 million in appropriations to begin this project in 1962.

Garcia wanted the main roads traversing agricultural and industrial areas (with a total length of 15,000 km) paved with cement to reduce the expensive cost of maintenance. Garcia’s final year in office also saw planning begin in 1961 for the largest road building project in Philippine history: the Pan-Philippine Highway.

Garcia's Pan-Philippine Highway was to begin at Aparri, Cagayan and wind-up in Davao City, a distance of more than 2,000 km. The Department of Public Works boasted it would complete this mammoth project in only five years, a target it failed to attain.

Highway 54 was renamed Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) on April 7, 1959 by virtue of Republic Act No. 2140.

Pan Philippine Highway

Cong Dadong’s roads

Pres. Diosdado Macapagal (1961-1965) focused heavily on road building since he reverted the Philippines back to a free enterprise economy.

During his final year in office, Macapagal reported the construction and improvement from 1962 to 1964 of 7,633 km of national, provincial, city and municipal roads at a total cost of P107.9 million. His administration also built and improved 3,500 linear meters of bridges at an expenditure of P22.6 million.

Macapagal also wholeheartedly supported the Pan-Philippine Highway, which was re-scheduled for completion in 1969, or four years after he left office.

The concreting of EDSA began during Macapagal's presidency and the highway’s last extensions were built in 1965. In the process, the northbound lane was extended from Balintawak to the Bonifacio Monument at Caloocan City. The southbound lane was extended from Taft Avenue to Roxas Boulevard.

Marcos' infrastructure frenzy

It's not well known the many road building projects undertaken by Pres. Ferdinand E. Marcos (1965-1986) concentrated on building and rehabilitating roads connecting the provinces since there were no more big ticket projects such as the Pan-Philippine Highway in the pipeline.

Marcos' road building spree had the aim of boosting local economic growth. He also saw the Pan-Philippine Highway and other major road networks as one national road network.

Like Quezon before him, Marcos considered roads as guarantors of economic growth. Marcos outspent even Quezon in his zeal for road-building. His administration’s infrastructure investments accounted for 6% of our gross domestic product (GDP), the highest among all Philippine presidents.

This allowed Marcos to boast in his Fourth State of the Nation address in Jan. 1969 his administration had “built more concrete roads than were ever built from the turn of the century to 1965”.

He said “from the start of the American regime to the end of the past administration, the government built only 995 kilometers of concrete roads, 7,268 kilometers of asphalt roads, 39,075 kilometers of feeder roads, and 76,693 lineal meters of permanent national bridges”.

“In the three years of the present administration, we increased the total length of concrete roads by 105%; that of asphalt by 20%; that of feeder roads by 15%; and that of permanent national bridges by 17%".

By 1980, or eight years into Martial Law, Marcos was able to assert that “infrastructure, which is the basis of our economic planning, shows a quantum leap … Today a system of 129,186 kilometers of highways and access roads joins our remotest barrios to the centers of commerce and population. The entire system can now be said to be linked from the north to the south, island to island”. 

EDSA in the 1970s