NICA, 'Philippinedization' and Agent X-44

BASED ON OSINT (open-source intelligence), the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA) -- our version of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) -- comes across as a bland spy organization that exists in relative obscurity, as do its spies.

Anonymity is the name of the game in spycraft, however. The history of espionage has proven the most effective intelligence agents are also the most inconspicuous. Spies whose covers are blown wind-up dead or behind bars. Agents stay alive only by remaining "secret." 

"Superstar spies" like "Tony Falcon, Agent X-44" (our 1960's version of James Bond played by the late Tony Ferrer) and James Bond, Agent 007 himself would be dead meat in the actual world of espionage. True spies are hardly ever flamboyant, and are forced by the demands of their lethal trade to remain anonymous wallflowers.

Looked at from this perspective, it seems NICA and its spies are doing a good job at masking their existence. Most Filipinos don't even know this spy agency exists or what it does. NICA’s website is bare bones and boring. There’s hardly any substantive information about NICA on search engines and large language models.

Nice work, NICA, for staying out of the public eye and keeping your local and global operations in the shadows like all good spy agencies should. This murkiness, however, conceals an intelligence agency that can be compared to a flawed double-edged sword -- deathly sharp on one edge and blunt on the other -- based on publicly available information. 

NICA's competence lies in its domestic counterinsurgency and anti-crime operations where it has over 70 years’ experience. This is the sharp edge of the NICA sword. On the other hand, NICA is a novice in foreign intelligence operations compared to the "Big Boys" such as the CIA and the Ministry of State Security of the People’s Republic of China. There is no public record or evidence to suggest NICA conducts covert and clandestine operations outside the Philippines, as can be gleaned from OSINT. International inexperience is the blunt edge of the NICA sword.

Sharpening the sword

The good news is the blunt edge is getting “un-blunted.” NICA and the other arms of the Philippines' security services are shifting further away from local counterinsurgency and moving deeper into the mostly unexplored terrain of global geopolitics and strategic intelligence.  

A national security reorientation by the administration of Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. against threats to our territorial integrity means NICA is bolstering intelligence activities against China. This is now seeing Filipino spycraft and its tools (human, electronic, signals, imagery and technical intelligence) brought to bear to protect our frontiers against Chinese aggression, especially in the West Philippine Sea.

In June 2022, NICA Director-General Ricardo de Leon said he wanted NICA to focus on our West Philippine Sea dispute with China. He said the country should strengthen its military presence in this hotspot to assert its sovereignty over Philippine waters.

“We also have to give focus on the West Philippine Sea,” he pointed out. “Any development with our neighbors, especially in that area, will certainly affect domestic security. We have to view everything, integrate, and harmonize our efforts.”

“We need to strengthen our security forces in the West Philippine Sea so that we can guarantee the safety of our fishermen.”

De Leon said NICA “(will look) at our own national interest as a priority.”  He thanked the president for supporting NICA’s acquisition of equipment and facilities that will allow it to strengthen and protect the Philippines’ territorial integrity.

A retired Police Lieutenant General of the Philippine National Police, de Leon was appointed to his post as NICA boss by the younger Marcos in June 2022.

This primacy of national sovereignty is reflected on the NICA website. It’s the number one strategic objective in NICA’s “8-Point National Intelligence Agenda and Strategic Objectives for 2022 to 2028.” The second and third objectives also support the aim of defending national sovereignty:  building an agile organization staffed with competent people and accelerating operations to address all national security threats. The acronym for NICA’s agenda and strategic objectives is S.O.A.R. H.I.G.H.

NICA currently defines its mission as, “To take the lead in directing, coordinating and integrating all government activities involving national intelligence,” which is roughly similar to its original mission crafted in 1949.

The first line of defense

One offshoot of its "think-local" bias is that NICA has remained "bogged down in internal security efforts against various insurgent groups” that could hinder its plans to prepare for regional challenges, contends Joshua Espeña, a Resident Fellow at the nonprofit policy research firm, International Development and Security Cooperation, based in Manila. Espeña said “much is unknown about its (NICA’s) efforts in foreign intelligence collection and analysis at the strategic level.”

NICA’s record in strategic intelligence was faulted for being "ineffective in intercepting Chinese espionage (in the Philippines).” This appreciation came from Rhon Ethelbert Ducos and Amadeus Quiaoit, co-authors of the article, "Tagging the Red Dragon: The Future of the Philippines’ Strategic Intelligence," published in the May 2022 edition of "The Diplomat," an international current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific. 

Ducos and Quiaoit advocate "transitioning strategic intelligence from the dominance of internal security towards a greater focus on external security as the first line of defense in the Philippines’ national security strategy." They see imagery intelligence (IMINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) as best suited to unveiling warship and maritime militia deployments of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea, as well as the strategic intentions of its command.

These outcomes become possible if NICA reorganizes itself "in parallel with the transforming strategic environment." Reorganization should include streamlining counterintelligence operations and adopting organizational models similar to those in other foreign intelligence agencies.

These moves should better enable NICA to combat Chinese intelligence and cyber operations against the Armed Forces of the Philippines, as well as the Department of Foreign Affairs and Department of National Defense. Intelligence operations against the PROC were derailed by the pro-China bent of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who in October 2016 announced the Philippines’ economic and military “separation” from the United States and its alignment with China. 

Ducos and Quiaoit also contend Duterte’s dalliance with China led to an influx of illegal Chinese immigrants, “who potentially represent a host of homeland security threats.” Duterte’s National Security Adviser, Hermogenes Esperon Jr., in 2019 said he considered the influx of mainland Chinese due to Philippine Online Gambling Operations (POGOs) a threat to national security.

Ducos and Quiaoit argue NICA's inexperience against foreign foes "invites institutional weakness, and such weaknesses invites external aggression" based on anecdotal evidence. As a solution, they advocate external security must become the first line of defense in the Philippines’ national security strategy. They warn Chinese espionage is a challenge the Philippines’ entire apparatus of state must prepare to resolutely combat.

“Philippinedization”

Ducos and Quiaoit declare the Philippines fell victim to a process now known in geopolitics as “Philippinedization,” which sounds like the Asian version of Finlandization but isn't, said the man that coined this term. Philippinedization is a portmanteau created by Chester Cabalza Ph.D. Cabalza and Espeña co-authored the book, "The Rise of Philippinedization: Philippinedization is not Finlandization," published in 2021. 

As defined by Cabalza, "Philippinedization is the process whereby a weaker state, backed by a powerful country, goes through great lengths in temporarily refraining from opposing a neighboring great power by resorting to economic and diplomatic rapprochements at the strategic level, but strengthening its national security infrastructure on the operational level with an eye for potential conflict in the foreseeable future."

This definition stands in stark contrast to Finlandization, which refers to the undue influence the influence the former Soviet Union wielded on its neighbor Finland. Coined in 1961, this word has come to mean "the process whereby a country is induced to favor, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it." 

Philippinedization was the norm under Duterte. Marcos has moved sharply away from Philippinedization towards more assertiveness against China. His current attitude likely means the emasculation of Philippinedization, and its replacement with a more muscular foreign policy in concert with the Philippines' traditional military allies. What this change of direction adds-up to is a further un-blunting of the NICA sword’s dull edge.

NICA and EDCA

Marcos has left no doubt as to his true strategic colors. In February 2023, he granted the U.S. armed forces access to four more Philippine military camps, apart from the five existing locations agreed on in the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA. 

Under the original EDCA signed in 2014, the national government and the U.S. will enhance facilities at the Cesar Basa Air Base in Floridablanca, Pampanga; the Fort Magsaysay Military Reservation in Nueva Ecija; the Lumbia Airfield in Cagayan de Oro City; the Antonio Bautista Air Base in Puerto Princesa, Palawan and the Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu. 

Marcos said four new sites have now been identified. He said these bases will also defend the country’s unprotected eastern coast and the Philippines' continental shelf.

“So, there are four extra sites scattered around the Philippines. There are some in the North, there are some around Palawan, there are some further South. So iba-iba talaga (They’re really in different areas),” he said.

EDCA allows U.S. troops access to designated Philippine military facilities. It also gives the Americans the right to build facilities and preposition equipment, aircraft and warships. EDCA does not allow permanent basing of U.S. troops in the Philippines.

Marcos has committed his administration to upholding the international ruling in favor of the Philippines and against China over the West Philippine Sea. On July 12, 2016, an Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague constituted under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention delivered a unanimous decision firmly rejecting China's expansive South China Sea maritime claims and its nine-dash line as having no basis in international law.

The Tribunal affirmed China has no lawful claim to the area determined by the Arbitral Tribunal to be part of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. China and the Philippines are legally bound to comply with this decision. Needless to say, China has rejected this decision.

National intelligence

Under Executive Order 235 that created it, NICA is responsible for “coordinating all government activities with respect to national intelligence and preparing intelligence estimates and summaries of both the local and foreign situations to be made available to the President and his policy-making body.” This legislation was signed by President Elpidio Quirino on July 10, 1949.

President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. abolished NICA and established the National Intelligence and Security Authority (NISA) on November 16, 1972, two months after he declared Martial Law. Under Presidential Decree 51, NISA had the same mission as NICA but was granted broader powers

NISA was abolished by President Corazon Aquino following the People Power Revolution of February 1986. She reestablished NICA as we know it today through Executive Order 246 signed July 24, 1987.  EO 246 made NICA “the focal point for the direction, coordination and integration of government activities involving intelligence, and the preparation of intelligence estimates of local and foreign situations for the formulation of national policies by the President.”

EO 246 also created the Directorate for Operations headed by the Assistant Director-General for Operations to take charge of information collection. It also made NICA responsible for preparing intelligence estimates about local and foreign situations. These reports serve as inputs used in day-to-day decision-making and long-term policy decisions by the President, the National Security Council and the Cabinet.

The presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001-2010) saw the further reorganization of NICA and the addition of new functions affecting intelligence gathering, counterintelligence and anti-terrorism.  Administrative Order 68 (AO 68) issued in 2003 gave NICA “principal authority to direct, coordinate and integrate all government activities involving national intelligence and continue to serve as the focal point for the preparation of intelligence estimates of local and foreign situations for the formulation of national policies by the President. As lead intelligence collection agency of the national government it shall operate directly under the Office of the President and shall be accountable to the President of the Republic of the Philippines.”

AO 68 created the Directorate for Counterintelligence to lead the national government’s counterintelligence operations. It also established the National Intelligence Committee (NIC) as an advisory body to the Director-General for the coordination, integration and fusion of all intelligence activities. NIC is the principal adviser to the President on intelligence matters. The NICA of today is the sum total of these and other changes. 

From overpopulation to depopulation: the Philippines a century hence

 (Published in ENRICH magazine, 2023)

THE WORLD'S EIGHTH BILLIONTH person was born in the Philippines on November 15, 2022. This symbolic milestone was announced to Filipinos by the Commission on Population and Development (PopCom).

PopCom said the eighth billionth person is a girl, Vinice Mabansag, of Tondo, Manila. The agency gifted the mother and child with a “welcome cake” to mark the historic occasion.

"The world has reached another population milestone after a baby girl born in Tondo, Manila was chosen to symbolically mark the eighth billionth person in the world," said PopCom in a Facebook post. "Baby Vinice was welcomed on Nov. 15 by nurses at Dr. Jose Fabella Memorial Hospital, as well as representatives from the Commission on Population and Development".

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres described the event as an "occasion to celebrate diversity and advancements while considering humanity's shared responsibility for the planet". In a statement, the UN said the steady growth in the global population is due to higher fertility rates, especially in the world's poorest countries (many of which are in Africa), and to people living longer thanks to advances in medicine, public health, nutrition and personal hygiene.

New born baby Vinice Mabansag, the world's eighth billionth person

Good news?

This landmark event, however, might herald an end to the pronatalism and its focus of child-bearing and parenthood that has been a hallmark of Philippine society since the end of the Second World War.

A relentless drop in fertility since 1946 means the Philippines will eventually come to grips with the perils of depopulation or population collapse. Depopulation has the power to make the Philippines old before it can even become rich. It might also put paid to the Philippines' cherished dream of becoming a First World country.

When a country's total fertility rate (TFR or births per woman) persistently falls below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman, its population grows older and shrinks. This outcome can slow economic growth and endanger pensions for the elderly.

Depopulation will also trigger slower growth in living standards, argues Prof. Charles Jones in a new study, “The End of Economic Growth?”, published in 2020.

He contends depopulation will give rise to a vicious cycle in which low fertility in one generation causes low fertility in the next. The end result will be a downward spiral in population. This scenario had earlier been given the name, the “Low-Fertility Trap Hypothesis”, by demographer Wolfgang Lutz and colleagues in a paper published in 2006.

Lower birth rates will also result in a smaller pool of young people entering the labor force. Coupled with an ageing population, the dearth of young people will strain a country's economic resources and might see a decline in growth. Rapid population ageing is a consequence of low fertility.

Japan’s labor force, for example, will drop from 68 million to 46 million (a 32% decline) by 2050 if present demographic trends continue. Germany will see a plunge from 41 million to 28 million.

China, however, is the poster boy for the crippling dangers of negative long-term population decline. Its population (now at 1.412 billion persons) is forecast to shrink to 1.411 billion by 2023, according to Statista. This drop is the offshoot of China's disastrous One Child Policy implemented in 1980 when its TFR stood at 3.01 births per woman. The One Child Policy triggered a precipitous fall in China's fertility rate to 1.15 births per woman by 2021.

China, the world's most populous country, is now facing a population collapse that will write finis to its grand ambition of becoming the world's leading economic and military power by the 2040s. Also as a result, China might never become a First World country.

Early demographic data suggests an absolute decline in China's population in 2022 -- the first reduction in 60 years. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the country's population grew by a puny 480,000 people in 2021, a record low increase that brought its population to 1.412 billion. In contrast, China's annual population growth stood at around eight million only a decade ago.

By 2050, China's population will decrease to 1.317 billion from today's 1.412 billion. This loss of some 100 million Chinese is depopulation on a massive scale and one from which China might never recover. On the other hand, India should have a population of 1.668 billion by 2050. It is widely expected to become the world's most populous country in 2023.

China population pyramid 2020

Becoming China

The Philippines is now faced with the potentially crippling phenomena where low fertility and a low birth rate reminiscent to that of China's become major barriers to economic prosperity.

The Philippines’ fertility rate in 2022 dropped to 1.9 children per woman between 15 and 49 years-old compared to 2.7 in 2017, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) in November. That’s below the replacement level of 2.1 offspring per woman, which is the point at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.

It's the first time the country's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 based on government data. The Philippines' fertility rate stood at 7.5 births per woman in 1950, falling by half to 3.8 by the year 2000. It has consistently decreased every year from 1950 to 2021.

The country’s birth rate is also on the decline. It fell to 19.778 births per 1,000 individuals in 2022, a 1% drop from 19.978 births per 1,000 people in 2021, said the PSA. The 2021 birth rate for Philippines was 0.99% lower than that for 2020 with its 20.177 births per 1,000 people. The 2020 birth rate was 0.98% smaller than that for 2019.

In comparison, China's birth rate plummeted to a record low of 7.52 per 1,000 people in 2021 compared to 8.52 in 2020, said the NBS. It’s been decreasing since 2017.

The birth rate and fertility rate are two different measures. The former refers to the total number of annual births per 1,000 individuals. On the other hand, the fertility rate counts the total number of births in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a population.

Birth rates ranging from 10 to 20 births per 1,000 are considered low, and the Philippines now fits into this category. Rates from 40 to 50 births per 1,000 are considered high.

Steep fertility drop

The unexpectedly large drop in fertility is “the sharpest ever recorded,” said PopCom Executive Director Lolito Tacardon in November. Tacardon also said the reasons for the decline include easier access to family planning and birth control and a desire among half of currently married Filipinas to no longer bear more children.

Tacardon said the steep drop in fertility also means the Philippines now has the third lowest fertility rate in Southeast Asia after Singapore (1.1 children per woman) and Thailand (1.5). He noted the average Asian fertility rate is 2.2.

He claimed there are “more pros than cons” to the Philippines falling below the replacement fertility level. He saw the decrease as a "demographic transition" giving the country an opportunity to “hasten socioeconomic development”.

The country's population grew by a scant 900,000 persons in 2020 and 324,000 in 2021 compared to 1.5 million in 2019, the year before the advent of COVID-19 pandemic. The birth rate in 2021 was the smallest annual natural increase since 1946 when the country's total population grew by only 254,000 persons.

The government, however, is showing no alarm at these changes. It said the low population growth in 2020 and 2021 gives the country a greater chance to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. PopCom Executive Director Dr. Juan Perez III said this might also improve the services provided by the national and local governments.

“Filipinos remained prudent by continuing to delay having children or forming families during the combined economic crisis and Covid-19 health emergency," said Perez in December 2021. "Couples in growing numbers continue to avail of family planning commodities and services in all regions of the country, with eight million users of modern family planning methods in 2020, or an addition of about 500,000 from 2019".

PopCom in August 2022 revealed the country's population of children had fallen over the last two decades due to "lower levels of fertility". The Philippines is also seeing a lower percentage of younger people in its total population of 110 million.

PopCom said the population of Filipino children below 5 years-old had dipped to 10.2% in 2020 from 10.8% in 2015 and 12.6% in 2000, based on data from the PSA. The percentage of Filipinos below 15 also decreased, from 37% in 2000 to 30.7% in 2020.

Perez attributed the lower number of children born since 2015 to "the effectiveness of the Philippines’ family planning program".

He said this trend should be considered good news given the Philippines' persistent overpopulation problem. He argued there was “nothing wrong with the low birth rate” in 2020 and 2021 and described these outcomes as a welcome demographic transition.

“There were fewer births because avoidance of pregnancy, unplanned pregnancies, unintended pregnancies were the aim of most women, and the economic crisis as well is (showing) that whenever there is an economic downturn, births go down,” said Perez.

Based on the latest data, PopCom estimated the Philippine population at 109,991,095 for 2021. This new estimate is two million persons lower than earlier projections and is based on a 1.63% population growth rate.

“If integrated population and development measures are sustained, we can look forward to a more stable population that can effectively support Philippine development," noted Perez. "Smaller family sizes need to be supported by a national living wage structure that also allows parents to save for their households’ unmet needs in food, housing, and education".

Philippine population pyramid 2020

Rapid depopulation

The biggest downside to low fertility's is it reduces a country's population only among the young and not among other age groups. Persistent low fertility also creates the conditions for future population decline. Overpopulation will no longer be a problem for the Philippines.

Demographers say a slide in fertility must be halted if a population is to be demographically sustainable. Depopulation is a situation the Philippines might face if it's not careful and if fertility continues to decrease year after year.

It's been seen that countries suffering from low fertility can experience depopulation at an extremely fast rate. The example of South Korea is a dire warning to our country.

South Korea in 2021 reported the world lowest fertility rate of only 0.81 births per woman compared to the global average of 2.32. If this chronically low fertility rate continues, South Korea will see its current population of 52 million persons plunge to only 38 million by 2070, according to Statistics Korea. That's an almost 40% drop in a mere 50 years. The last time South Korea had a 38 million population was in 1980/81.

Japan is also in the same boat at South Korea as one of the few Asian countries experiencing depopulation. Its population is forecast to decrease from 126.5 million in 2020 to 105.8 million in 2050. This is a 16.3% population reduction. Japan's population is shrinking rapidly and the main reason is its low fertility rate, which stood at 1.37 births per woman in 2021. That same year saw only 811,604 babies born, the lowest number since Japan began keeping records in 1899.

By 2050, populations will decrease in more than half the European countries. Interestingly, some 60% of the global population resides in countries like ours where fertility rates have dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

One more chance

It’s  odd that despite the Philippines ’ low  fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman, our country was still listed by the United Nations in its World Population Prospects 2022 as among the eight countries that will account for more than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050.

The estimated Philippine population in 2050 will be 157.9 billion compared to today's 110 million, or an increase of 48 million Filipinos over the next three decades. This seems to explain why the UN included the Philippines among the top eight countries driving global population growth by 2050. Compare to this to Japan whose population will shrink by more than 20 million in 2050 from today's 126.5 million.

Our population will peak at 180.8 billion in 2090 before decreasing in the succeeding years to 180.1 million by the year 2100, according to the UN. The new UN estimates are significantly higher than those projected by the 2019 edition of its World Population Prospects.

The other seven countries that will drive global population growth in 2050 are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Tanzania. The report also estimated the global population at 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.

The UN report also said the rate of new people being born around the world is definitely slowing down. The global population, however, is expected to continue increasing for many more decades. Population changes gradually over time, so countries like the Philippines facing future depopulation should have enough time to reverse course -- if they want to.

Demographers say the longer a low fertility rate persists; the harder it becomes to reverse depopulation. Countries wanting to avoid depopulation have to make higher levels of fertility a priority national goal while their demographics still allow for population growth.

The Philippines has an easy choice to make given it has the rest of this century to act. But can it be trusted to make the right decision?

Philippine median age 2020

Is ‘quietting’ your cup of tea, or would you rather ‘lie flat’?

 (Published in ENRICH magazine, 2022)

THERE'S A "QUIET" REVOLUTION raging among youthful employees in two of the world's richest countries that might just change our deeply held views about working hard for the money and the primacy of work in our lives.

By some fantastic coincidence, a growing number of young adults in the United States and China -- the former a champion of corporate capitalism and the latter the bastion of state capitalism – are simultaneously protesting their exploitation by companies that pay them a pittance but demand they work almost to death to boost shareholder value.

Their protests, which began in early 2021 amid the raging COVID-19 pandemic, have gone viral both online and in the real world and show no signs of abating. Some call this phenomenon a resistance movement against wage slavery. Others refer to it as a spiritual rejection of workaholism (or work addiction) and the workaholic culture. Still others claim they're anti-work movements.

What exactly is happening in the disparate workplaces of America and China?

In the U.S., young employees fed-up with low pay and long hours have taken to protesting today's more rabid rat race by embracing "quiet quitting", or "quietting", while also disengaging from their companies.

These people just "coast along" and do enough so they don’t get fired as slackers. In this sense, they're somewhat similar to the Hippies of the 1960s that were their grandparents.

Quiet quitting is basically a loud protest by young Americans against workaholism, which today goes by the new epithet of "hustle culture". The main objective of quiet quitting is to pay more attention to one's mental health and personal well-being. Workaholism defeats this aim.

In China, disillusioned young workers have taken to "lying flat" ("tang ping"; 躺平), or have embraced its more extreme offshoot called "let it rot" ("bai lan"; 摆烂).

Young Chinese are doing this to protest the widespread and brutal "996" (jiǔ jiǔ liù) work-to-death culture in some companies that drives them to despair -- and sometimes suicide. An online post described lying flat (or lie flat) as a “new cultural movement of the new youth in a hundred years”.

Another called the movement “a silent protest to unfairness, often the result of structural and institutional factors that can no longer be altered by personal efforts”.

On the other hand, going bai lan means an employee must "actively embrace a deteriorating situation, rather than trying to turn it around". It means what you think it means: if the going gets tough, let it rot. The phrase has its origins in Chinese basketball where a team losing badly makes the decision to lose the game instead of mounting a furious rally to try to win.

Both tang ping and bai lan seek to restore the healthy work-life balance shattered by China's notorious workaholism culture. The young Chinese that bravely decide to go these routes seem to want to earn just enough to meet their physiological needs without undue and unwanted stress.

In both countries, these young people see no need for working above and beyond, especially in what's being called "bullshit jobs". Just do what the job demands. Period!

Quietters and anti-966ers don't want employers to earn tons of money from their doing extra work without extra pay while being treated as mindless money-making machines.

The mobile phone is the leading tool for employee oppression. Quietters have taken to not responding to voice calls and texts from their bosses to discuss work after they clock out at 5:00 p.m. or during Saturdays and Sundays. No more “pakiusap”.

They're doing the right thing so they can attain the duty to enjoy life outside the office and spend more time with their families. They also want their jobs to align more closely with their personal values. One working American mom put it succinctly: her kids don't care how great an employee she is; all they want is for her to be a great mom.

Employers are taking notice of quiet quitting but can't figure out if they should be sympathetic or punitive towards employees embracing these new forms of labor protest. Some U.S. companies, however, have resorted to "quiet firing" employees they believe are quiet quitters by making their office lives so miserable they quickly resign.

Tang ping and bai lan cats

Dangerous "Dreams"

These twin protest movements imply a rejection of the "American Dream" and the "Chinese Dream" of prosperity through hard work. These dreams are now seen by more young people as tools worsening the massive income inequality and intractable inequities that are their daily lot.

The young reason that if the game is rigged against you, why play at all? Why not be like bench players on a professional basketball team that still get paid despite not playing as hard or as often as the team's superstars. Makes sense, right?

Employees that are Millennials (Gen Y, or those born from 1981 to 1996) and Zoomers (Gen Z, or those born from 1997 to 2012) are involved in this epic struggle to restore humanity in the workplace. The consequences of this fight for respect might profoundly affect the future nature of work in other capitalist economies such as the Philippines.

What's occurring in the U.S. and China is the latest take on the eternal "war" between employees and bosses, or between those that sweat and those that reap the rewards of this sweat.

Some countries in Europe have also been infected by the quiet quitting and tang ping viruses. It's unclear if these resistance movements will prosper to the levels they've attained in the U.S. and China, however.

What can't be denied is the repudiation of the idea that being a workaholic is both "good" and "necessary" for personal financial success. It seems there's a renewal of an old argument that people shouldn't be forced to sell their labor for the right to live decent lives. People aren't farm animals.

There must be alternative ways of working and living that employees and employers can agree upon that don't demand so much of employees' lives in return for so little reward. What this is, I don't know.

But the rise of work-from-home (WFH) or remote work, and hybrid work due to the pandemic might be a step in this direction. Hybrid work is a flexible work model combining in-office work with WFH.

It allows employees the autonomy to choose to work wherever and however they're most productive. The pandemic led to the popularity of both models as people reevaluated their jobs and careers.

Young Chinese lying flat

Goodbye office

The waning of the pandemic threat in 2022, however, revealed that employees worldwide no longer want to go back to their offices. A survey released in April 2022 by the ADP Research Institute that provides labor market and employee performance research confirmed return-to-office mandates will drive Millennials and Zoomers to quit their jobs.

It showed that 64% of the global workforce has already, or is considering, looking for new jobs if their employers order them back to the office full-time. The same resistance to full-time office work has manifested in the Philippines.

This rejection of in-office work persists in the U.S. The results of survey conducted by U.S. business intelligence firm Morning Consult and released in September 2022 revealed that four in 10 employed adults said they'd rather quit their job than return to an office full-time. Six in 10 said they’re more likely to apply for a job with a WFH option.

In the meantime, we're stuck with the phenomenon of quiet quitting, tang ping and bai lan. These protests don't seem to have the makings of a short-term trend that will disappear when world economies rev-up in a few years' time. The fuse has been lit and that's what matters.

Made in China

In April 2021, a Chinese employee named Luo Huazhong published an innocuous post entitled "Lying Flat is Justice" in the online forum, Baidu Tieba.

Posting under the username "Kind-Hearted Traveler", Luo said he had chosen to live a minimalist lifestyle in his home town of Jiande in eastern Zhejiang Province. He said he quit his factory job in 2016 and spent the next few years wandering around China. He survives by doing odd jobs, subsisting on $60 a month from his savings and eating two meals a day.

An apparent lover of Western philosophy, Luo waxed philosophical in his Baidu Tieba post. Here are his original comments in full:

“I have not been working for two years, just having fun and don’t see anything wrong in it. Pressure mainly comes from people around you who position and compete with you. It also comes from the values of the older generation.

“All sorts of pressures keep popping up before you all the time. Every time you search for a popular news, it is all about romances and pregnancies etc. of celebrities in ‘procreative surrounding’ (生育周边), as if some ‘invisible creatures’ (看不见的生物) are creating a kind of thinking and pressure on you.

“But we don’t have to be like this. I can just sleep in the sun in my wooden bucket like Diogenes, or I can live in a cave like Heraclitus and think about ‘logos’, since this land has never had a school of thought that exalts human subjectivity, I can develop one of my own. Lying flat is my wise movement. Only through lying flat, can humans measure up to things.”

This thoughtful post triggered the lying flat movement; created the “philosophy” called “lying flat-ism” and ordained Luo as the “lying flat master”. It also took the working Chinese youth by storm and angered China’s communist masters who saw it as subverting the officially sanctioned Chinese Dream movement.

Lying flat soon became a buzzword among the masses and the Communist Party of China (CPC) moved quickly to quell its popularity. The CPC removed Luo's original Tieba post that had over 10,000 followers. It ordered online platforms to "strictly restrict" posts about tang ping. Searches for tang ping on the Chinese internet now yield no results.

The CPC also banned the online sales of tang ping-branded merchandise such as the hugely popular lie flat cat cartoons on T-shirts, bags, keychains and other items, calling them subversive.

In May 2021 or less than a month after Luo posted on Tieba, Xinhua (China's official propaganda arm) published an editorial assailing lying flat as “shameful” and a “poisonous chicken soup”. In October, CPC secretary general Xi Jinping called for "avoiding 'involution' (nei juan) and 'lying flat'" in an article published in the CPC journal Qiushi.

Let it rot

Modern slavery

Life is tough in China, especially for young adults. Oddities in Chinese society mean many young people can't afford to marry, have children, buy car and own a home due a combination of paltry salaries and way too expensive items.

Young people have to bear the “burden of the three mountains” -- education, healthcare and housing -- while taking care of their elderly parents and in-laws. Most Chinese are struggling to stay afloat, especially with the continuing series of pandemic lockdowns, droughts, floods and an economic downturn threatening recession.

Premier Li Keqiang revealed that “China has over 600 million people whose monthly income is barely 1,000 yuan ($140) and their lives have further been affected by the coronavirus pandemic.” That’s four in 10 Chinese. In March 2021, Li said over 200 million Chinese hold “flexijobs”, which is official-speak for a person working two jobs at a time to make ends meet.

Overworking in China hit new lows when the brutal 996 working hour system came into vogue over the past decade. The number 996 means employees work from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., 6 days every week for a total of 72 crushing hours per week. Free time has become non-existent.

The most notorious champions of 996 are Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, who infamously called 996 a "huge blessing," and Richard Liu, founder and CEO of JD.com, one of China's two top B2C online retailers. Liu, the "Jeff Bezos of China", has been blasted for saying employees that avoid 996 are nothing more than slackers.

Employees committing suicide because they couldn't cope with the brutal pace of overworking demanded by 996 turned Chinese public opinion against the practice. In August 2021, the 996 working hour system was declared illegal by the Supreme People's Court.

It was also criticized as a violation of Chinese Labor Law since employees are only allowed to extend work hours by up to three hours for special reasons. The law says employees should not work more than 36 extra hours in a month.

The 996 culture keeps being attacked by Chinese as "modern slavery". The practice continues, however, due to lax government enforcement of the law.

Born in the USA

Quiet quitting began as a unique American phenomenon and was born out of the de facto massive labor strike otherwise called "The Great Resignation". Oddly, The Great Resignation or The Big Quit was recognized for what it was -- an unprecedented wave of nationwide mass resignations -- in April 2021. This was the same month Luo published his lying flat post that ignited China's lying flat movement.

In April, demographers reported a record four million Americans quit their jobs. By July 2022, that huge number had swollen to 11.2 million. The number of vacancies peaked at 11.9 million in March 2022.

Quiet quitting is more akin to tang ping, which is a rejection of societal pressures to overwork. In quiet quitting, an employee does only what his job demands and nothing more. It's also been described as "acting your wage". Quiet quitting is believed to have been inspired by the tang ping movement.

The word quitting in quiet quitting doesn't refer to an employee resigning his job. It means employees are "quitting" going the extra mile for the company without pay, and refusing to do jobs and overtime they're not being paid for.

People aren't farm animals. Neither are they mindless money-making machines.

The Chinese cat symbolizing lying flt

‘Like puberty and pimples’, or a closer look at Rich Asia’s ‘unseen epidemic’

 (Published in ENRICH magazine, 2022)

POPULAR CULTURE (including our own) tends to portray nerds as young people wearing oversized eyeglasses. Same goes for older nerds, or the guys we like to call scientists. Nerds and glasses go together like puberty and pimples, right?

We see this well-worn trope on our big and little screens. Think bespectacled super wizard Harry Potter whose eyesight “really was awful”, said Hermione Granger. There’s also shy Daily Planet reporter Clark Kent ditching his nerd glasses as he transforms from Supernerd into Superman. But what kind of vision disorder afflicts nerds in real life, and these two superheroes?

A decades-old epidemic raging among children and young adults in East and Southeast Asia's richer countries gives us a clear answer. Kids with glasses have to contend with the curse of myopia and the many health maladies it brings in its train. Blindness is the most serious.

Also called nearsightedness and short-sightedness, myopia exacts a painful personal toll among some in the "glass-class". There's social ostracism (hot girls hate nerdy guys), and the risk a nerdy guy or girl will wind-up an "incel" (involuntarily celibate). Not a suitable state of affairs if your life-goal is to have kids and raise a happy family.

Levity aside, myopia is a huge and serious health problem in the Asian countries I mentioned. Happily, Filipino kids have evaded this worst of this plague for now -- but for reasons that aren't all that flattering.

Rich Asia's curse

There were some 2.6 billion nearsighted people worldwide in 2020, or 33% of the total world population of 7.8 billion, according to the German statistics portal, Statista. Myopia, however, runs rampant in the region I call "Rich Asia". The prevalence of myopia has been reported as ranging from highs of 70% to 90% in the Asian countries comprising Rich Asia: mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Singapore and South Korea.

This means myopia isn't only a nerd problem but one afflicting a lot of kids and young adults in Rich Asia. The rest-of-the world is also becoming more nearsighted. The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts that 50% of the world’s population will have myopia by 2050. That’s close to five billion persons.

These stats reveal why myopia is the most common eye problem in the world today. Myopia’s wide prevalence in East Asia, which includes Rich Asia, is high enough to warrant the use of the term epidemic to describe its scope.

This “unseen epidemic” is at its worse in Singapore with a population of only 5.7 million persons. Myopia's pervasiveness is so bad some Singaporean pundits have taken to calling their own country the "Myopia Capital of the World" and "the epicenter of the East Asian myopia epidemic".

"The prevalence of myopia in Singapore is among the highest in the world, with 65% of our children being myopic by Primary 6, and 83% of young adults being myopic," revealed Prof. Wong Tien Yin, former Medical Director of the Singapore National Eye Center, in a speech delivered in 2019.

"As such, Singapore is often labeled as the 'Myopia Capital of the World'. By 2050, it is projected that 80 to 90% of all Singaporean adults above 18 years old will be myopic and 15 to 25% of these individuals may have high myopia".

In sheer numbers, however, it's China that has the most number of myopes. China's myopia rate of 31% means more than 400 million of today's 1.4 billion Chinese are nearsighted.

Myopia's prevalence in China's high schools stands at 77%. This figure jumps to a stunning 80% among college students.

In South Korea, the myopia rate comes to 50% in kids aged 5 to 11 years-old and 78.8% in those 12 to 18 years of age. A decade ago, 96% of 19 year-old males in Seoul had myopia, according to one study. Of this total, 22% had what can be called high myopia, which is a rare inherited type of high-degree nearsightedness.

Taiwan back in 2014 reported that 18% of first graders, 52% of sixth graders and 80% of university students were myopic. A study by Taiwanese doctors found the prevalence of myopia among schoolchildren increased rapidly from 1983 to 2017.

A study in 1983 confirmed some 70% of Taiwanese high school graduates needed glasses or contact lenses to see properly. This percentage has ballooned to 80% today.

Japan still struggles with short-sightedness. A study by Japanese researchers revealed the prevalence of myopia in Japan rose rapidly from only 11.6% in 1949 to 62.3% in 2017 among high school students in all of the country's 47 prefectures. It also said "the prevalence of myopia among adults will increase" as these teenagers grow older.

Bespectacled Chinese boys

Reasons why

Knowing all of this leads to the obvious question: "Why do many children and young adults in Rich Asia suffer disproportionately from myopia in the first place"?

There are a number of credible answers including heredity, but the three most prominent are deformed eyeballs, far too much "near work" and not spending enough time outdoors in the healthy sunshine.

Eye doctors agree most myopia is caused by misshapen eyeballs. This consensus can be appreciated when we consider an accepted clinical definition of the disease.

"Nearsightedness, or myopia, as it is medically termed, is a vision condition in which people can see close objects clearly, but objects farther away appear blurred", according to the American Optometric Association.

"Myopia occurs if the eyeball is too long or the cornea (the clear front cover of the eye) is too curved. As a result, the light entering the eye isn't focused correctly, and distant objects look blurred. Myopia affects nearly 30% of the U.S. population".

A refractive error in the eye, myopia also tends to be progressive i.e. it worsens over time. A myope's vision will deteriorate throughout childhood and adolescence before becoming more stable in adulthood. Myopia tends to run in families.

Without treatment, high myopia complications can lead to blindness. This makes it a must for myopes to have regular eye examinations and to wear corrective eyeglasses or contact lenses.

Myopia is also defined as blurred vision beyond two meters or 6.6 feet. It worsens when the eye grows longer, a deformity that causes the retina to stretch. Over time, a misshaped retina makes the eye vulnerable to serious diseases like macular degeneration, retinal detachment, glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy, according to ophthalmologists..

Too much near work is a no-no

Excessive near work, a major cause of myopia, was defined as " . . . the sum of activities with short working distance such as reading, studying, writing, doing homework, watching TV, or playing video games, etc", by  a scientific paper published 2015 in the  peer-reviewed open access journal, PLOS One.

The PLOS One study found "that more time spent on near work activities was associated with higher odds of myopia,” but added a caveat the associations between time spent reading and myopia have not been consistently observed. Singapore’s experience confirms the link between near work and higher odds of myopia.

"In fact, a higher exposure to near work is the main contributing factor -- besides heredity and genetic factors -- to increased risks of myopia . . . among children in Singapore," said Clinical Associate Professor Dr. Lee Shu Yen, Head of the Surgical Retina Department at the Singapore National Eye Center (SNEC), in 2019.

These findings lead to the hard-to-accept conclusion a child seems more likely to become nearsighted the more years he spends in school. It also suggests nearsightedness is basically universal by the time children reach college.

“The more educated you are, and the higher your grades, and the more you participate in after-school classes and tutorials -- the more likely you are (to be myopic)”, said Dr. Ian Morgan, a retired biologist who studies myopia at Australian National University, in Canberra, Australia.

It seems myopia, for the most part, is an affliction of the bookish and is correlated with academic performance. A number of studies confirm a strong link between myopia and education, especially the excessive near work demanded by too much reading and writing. 

"The prevalence of myopia has increased dramatically in recent years around the world and, in some highly educated groups such as law and medical students, it now exceeds 80%," said the PLOS One study.

Youngsters excessively eyeballing small smartphone screens as they play video games for hours on end also worsen the myopia epidemic. A Filipino doctor believes 90% of frequent mobile or online gamers have myopia.

Barbaric stress

A crucial reason why many students in Rich Asia study so inhumanly hard is the inordinate pressure placed on them to do well in school. This pressure reaches a peak in high school when they face the daunting task of passing their country's punishing college admission examinations. Acing these exams is seen as the guarantor of future success in countries such as China and South Korea.

Failing has been known to destroy lives. Student suicides due to intense academic pressure are a horrific fact of life in Rich Asia.

Depression and suicides are unfortunate by-products of educational systems such as those in China and South Korea that place barbaric stress on hapless high school students to pass a single, all-consuming exam.

South Korean parents believe a good university is a passport to professional and financial success for their children. They’d rather their children take college at one of the prestigious "SKY" universities: Seoul National University, Korea University and Yonsei University.

Chinese parents share a similar outlook. Their dream is to see their children matriculate at top tier universities such as the big three (Tsinghua University, Peking University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University) for the same reasons as Korean parents. And, like Korean parents, many Chinese parents apparently push their children to the limit of their endurance to pass these exams.

In China, kids have to hurdle the dreaded "Gaokao", or the National College Entrance Examination, considered by some as the world's toughest college admissions test.  Gaokao was identified as a contributing factor in 93% of student suicides in China in 2014.

It's just as bad in South Korea. Since 2007, suicide has been the leading cause of death among young Koreans, according to data from Statistics Korea. Having to pass the country's dreaded "Suneung" (the Korean College Scholastic Ability Test) is one of the reasons why close to one in three students see suicide as a means of escape from the almost unbearable academic pressures they must endure to attain this aim.

Myopia

Let there be light

Excessive time studying and cramming, and spending long hours playing games on smartphones means young people in Rich Asia and elsewhere are spending more time indoors. The still raging COVID-19 pandemic that began spreading in 2020 has added immensely to time young people spend bereft of healthy sunlight.

A number of studies have found that time spent outdoors is strongly associated with a lower risk of myopia. The corollary is that kids who spend less time outside are more likely to become nearsighted.

One of these studies involving children in California published in 2007 found time spent outdoors is strongly associated with a lower risk of myopia. Simply being outdoors is the key factor so it doesn't matter if kids play sports or just stroll around.

Another study, this one in 2008, involving Singaporean children of Chinese ethnicity studying in Australia and Singapore came to the same conclusion. It found that 29% of Singaporean students in Singapore had myopia compared with just 3% of those studying in Sydney.

The main difference was time spent outdoors by the Sydney Singaporeans. The kids in Sydney spent 13.75 hours a week outdoors compared to a scant three hours for those in Singapore.

“The big difference was the Chinese children in Australia were outdoors a lot more than their matched peers in Singapore,” said Dr. Morgan.

He estimates children need to spend around three hours per day outdoors to lower their myopia risk. A WHO report on myopia released in 2015 found that children should spend more than two hours a day outdoors.

The protective effect from being outdoors might be due to the intensity of sunlight releasing more retinal dopamine, which is a neurotransmitter. Dopamine appears to help regulate the rate at which our eyes grow. Too little dopamine causes our eyes to grow too long to focus properly.

Also called the "feel-good hormone", dopamine is associated with learning, memory, pleasurable sensations and other bodily functions.

This exposure to sunlight reduces a child's risk of myopia even if the child has two myopic parents and does near work. This theory explaining the positive effect of the outdoors, called the "daylight exposure theory", has gained wide acceptance.

Taiwan has taken this theory seriously. In 2010, the government began a nationwide program called “Tian-Tian Outdoor 120” that goaded schools to take pupils outside for two hours daily. The results of the program reversed a decades-long trend of rising myopia rates. Myopia rates fell from 49.4% in 2012 to 46.1% in 2015 among the millions of Taiwanese primary-school pupils involved in the program.

Myopia isn’t the Philippines’ biggest problem

Studies reveal that up to 29% of Filipino children suffer from myopia, said ophthalmologist Dr. Alexander Gonzales II of the Ospital ng Makati at a conference in 2018. He noted that 90% of frequent mobile or online gamers are nearsighted.

The prevalence of myopia in the general population is even higher. It's been estimated at 40% by Dr. John Ang, vice president for Education and Professional Services of Essilor Asia Pacific, Middle East, Russia and Africa. He also said school kids must spend more time outdoors.

"Changing lifestyles is very important like in Sydney where students have two hours outside play per day, they are three percent myopic," he said.  "I'm not sure, but maybe we Asians push our children more to be indoors and study, unlike the Australians, they are more the sporty type".

It's long been proven that myopia can be corrected and managed. Early detection of the disease is vital to curbing its potential to inflict more damage to one's vision.

"Eyeglasses are the simplest and safest way to correct and manage myopia", said Dr. Ang.

Among his suggestions for eye health is for children to spend at least two and a half hours outdoors daily. Kids should also have an eye exam every six months and take a break when using computers or using smartphones and other digital devices.

The low myopia rate among Filipino schoolchildren compared to their peers in Rich Asia is something to cheer about but it’s not the worst problem our youngsters face.

In late 2019, the Philippines was assailed by the humiliating news Filipino students ranked the lowest among 79 countries in mathematics, science, and reading. The report that disclosed this shameful news came from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

It revealed that in mathematics and science, Filipino 15 year-olds rated 353 points and 357 points, respectively, compared to the OECD average of 489 for both categories. The Philippines ranked second to the last in math and science, and last in reading.

The report based on the 2018 survey said more than 80% of students in the Philippines did not reach a minimum level of proficiency in reading. It called this failure “one of the largest shares of low performers amongst all PISA-participating countries and economies”.

 “Fifteen-year-old students in the Philippines scored lower in reading, mathematics, and science than those in most of the countries and economies that participated in PISA 2018”, said the OECD report. “No country scored lower than the Philippines and the Dominican Republic”.

The poor results categorized four in five Filipino students as Level 2, or “low performers,” in the subject. OECD said Level 2 students have a proficiency “too low to enable them to participate effectively and productively in everyday life”.

The Philippines’ score in PISA has been on a steady decline for the past two decades. It dropped by 61 points (from 358 in 2003 to 297) and by 83 points (from 332 in 2003 to 249) in math and science. The PISA survey is held every three years with the last one taking place in 2021.

Another international test rubbed more salt into this wound. Our Grade 4 pupils posted the lowest scores in mathematics and science among the 58 countries involved in a 2019 study by the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study.

Clearly, myopia is not the major problem besetting Philippine education. Ignorance is.

Philippine education is failing our youth

 

Poultry, pigs and the next global pandemic

 (Published in ENRICH magazine 2021)

PIGS AND POULTRY could be the likely hosts of the next pandemic set to ravage the human race, perhaps over the next 40 years.

Lost in the tumult surrounding the global battle against the still uncontained COVID-19 coronavirus and its variants is the alarming news of outbreaks of a new strain of African swine flu (ASF) called "G4 EA H1N1," and avian influenza strains, specifically "H5N1.” These flu viruses carry the potential to be the next global pandemic but as of now represent a distant danger.

Medical experts worldwide have consistently warned the next pandemic is inevitable. Earlier this year, the World Health Organization (WHO), global epidemiologists and infectious hazard experts reiterated that warning, affirming the next pandemic is a statistical certainty.  In their professional opinions, a future pandemic is not a matter of "If," but of "When” and "How serious.”

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) in Minnesota, whose aim is "to prevent illness and death from infectious diseases,” said there have been nine flu pandemics over the past 300 years. This statistic means one flu pandemic erupts every 30 to 35 years, or about three per century. CIDRAP estimates the 21st century might see up to five flu pandemics, however. 

The world has been hit by two pandemics so far this century. These are the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic that also struck the Philippines and the raging COVID-19 pandemic, which isn’t caused by the flu virus but by the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus.

In 2011, WHO said “the world is ill-prepared to respond to a severe influenza pandemic or to any similarly global, sustained and threatening public health emergency.” This prediction, made in the aftermath of the global 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, was proven accurate with the onslaught of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic starting December 2019.

Pandemic potential

G4 EA H1N1 swine flu has the potential, however low, to trigger a new pandemic if left unchecked. A peer-reviewed study conducted by Chinese researchers and published in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), in July 2020 issued the stark warning that further transmission of the G4 EA H1N1 swine flu strain found in Chinese pigs might see this virus “adapt and become a pandemic.”

Also known as the "G4 swine flu virus," swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) is a virus strain discovered in China in 1996. It's a variant genotype 4 (or G4) Eurasian avian-like (EA) H1N1 virus that mostly affects pigs.

The H1N1 subtype has a long history as a killer of humans. It caused the horrific 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic estimated to have killed more than 50 million people worldwide and infected a third of the world’s population. It also caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic that claimed from eight to 27 lives in the Philippines.

The 2009 swine flu pandemic from January 2009 to August 2010 led to the deaths of more than 17,000 people worldwide, said WHO. This pandemic saw its first confirmed case in the Philippines in May 2009 and its first death in June.

Epidemiologists said some H1N1 strains are already endemic in humans. These endemic strains are responsible for a small fraction of all influenza-like illness, as well as all seasonal influenza. On the other hand, there are H1N1 strains endemic in pigs (swine influenza) and in birds (avian influenza).

The PNAS paper said "G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented."

It noted the G4 viruses have the right characteristics for causing infections in people. These worrisome traits include the ability to grow well in human lung cells and to spread by respiratory droplets (much like COVID-19).

The study said the G4 virus "has shown a sharp increase since 2016, and is the predominant genotype in circulation in pigs detected across at least 10 provinces" in China. It documented three human cases of G4 infections in humans, all in China.

The study also found that some 10% of Chinese swine workers that had their blood samples taken had evidence of prior infections with G4 viruses. This suggests human infections are more common than previously thought.

Thankfully, the G4 virus can't be transmitted from person-to-person -- at least not yet. On the other hand, previous flu outbreaks have proven influenza viruses often jump from pigs to humans given time and favorable conditions.

 “The likelihood that this particular variant is going to cause a pandemic is low,” said Dr. Martha Nelson, who read the study. Dr. Nelson is an evolutionary biologist at the U.S. National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center who studies pig influenza viruses and their spread to humans.

“You’re really not getting a good snapshot of what is dominant in pigs in China,” according to Dr. Nelson, who also said there is a need for more sampling.

Ominously, the study said G4’s inclusion of genes from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic “may promote the virus adaptation,” allowing for human-to-human transmission in the coming years.  It urged monitoring of farms and workers in China since further transmission might cause the G4 virus to “adapt and become a pandemic.”

The study said all the evidence indicates the G4 EA H1N1 virus "is a growing problem in pig farms, and the widespread circulation of G4 viruses in pigs inevitably increases their exposure to humans."  It said the G4 group of H1N1 swine influenza viruses have “the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans” and are, therefore, of potential pandemic concern.

The study concluded G4 has been spreading in pigs in China since 2016, and has become the predominant genotype found in Chinese pigs today. The danger zoonotic transmissions might occur in the future led the study authors to urge closer monitoring of G4 EA H1N1 in China.

In the study, Chinese researchers analyzed 30,000 swabs collected from pigs at slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2018. They found 179 swine influenza viruses, most of which were G4.

One consequence of the study was that in July 2020, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began taking action to monitor and prepare the United States against this emerging public health threat from China. Among the actions taken by CDC were to ramp-up coordination with its public health partners in China, and requesting G4 virus samples from Chinese pigs.

CDC is also evaluating if an existing candidate vaccine virus against a closely related flu virus called “G5” can protect against the G4 viruses. If not, CDC will develop a new vaccine specific to G4 viruses.

H5N1 outbreak

In February 2020, China reported the latest outbreak of the H5N1 avian flu in the southern province of Hunan.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs confirmed an outbreak of a "highly pathogenic (or deadly) strain" of H5N1 bird flu at a farm in Shaoyang city in Hunan. It reported the culling 17,800 poultry following the outbreak at this and other farms.

This was the second H5N1 outbreak to hit China in 14 years. In 2006, an H5N1 outbreak struck eight countries, including China, leading to the deaths of 79 out of 115 positively diagnosed people worldwide, said WHO.

Highly pathogenic relates to the ability of a virus to kill chickens. It doesn't refer to how infectious a virus might be to humans, other mammals or other species of birds.

Health experts said most bird flu strains aren’t highly pathogenic and cause few signs of disease in infected wild birds. WHO said H5N1 is rare in humans but if H5N1 does infect humans, the mortality rate might reach a dreadful 60%. In contrast, the mortality rate for COVID-19 was estimated at 3.4% globally by WHO in March 2021 compared to 1% for seasonal flu.

H5N1 can be transmitted to humans typically through contact with dead birds or a contaminated environment. In July 2013, WHO said 630 confirmed human cases due to H5N1 infections from swine resulted in the deaths of 375 people since 2003 for a mortality rate of 60%,

"The virus does not infect humans easily, and spread from person to person appears to be unusual," said a statement from WHO. "There is no evidence that the disease can be spread to people through properly prepared and thoroughly cooked food."

Swine flu plus bird flu

Of great concern to the medical community it the mounting danger from a new bird flu pandemic triggered by shortages of pork. This danger is especially acute in China, which consumes more than half the world’s total pork production while producing more than a half of the global pig population. Pork is the most consumed type of meat in China.

Persistent pork meat shortages ignited a surge in imports while also spurring backyard poultry farming, a shift some health experts fear might trigger another bird flu pandemic..

“This is very scary because we know that there will be another pandemic,” said Dr. Kristina Osbjer, a veterinary epidemiologist, who used to work for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “Now, there is an increased risk of avian influenza being the origin.”

Global health authorities now see the relentless global spread of H5N1 influenza in birds as a significant and unprecedented pandemic threat.

"As long as avian influenza viruses circulate in poultry, sporadic infection of avian influenza in humans is not surprising, which is a vivid reminder that the threat of an influenza pandemic is persistent," said WHO about human infections from bird flu.

Other variants

Other avian flu strains with pandemic potential originating in birds are currently causing concern in China, South Korea and Japan.

In March 2021, Japan and South Korea reported their continuing struggle to control bird flu outbreaks that forced them to cull millions of chickens, ducks and quails. Japan is grappling against an outbreak of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 that began in in wild birds and poultry. Similar outbreaks have been reported in 12 other countries, mainly in Western Europe, since July 2020.

FAO said the outbreak in Japan and South Korea is one of two separate and ongoing bird flu epidemics. It said bird flu strains in Asia and one in Europe originated in wild birds spreading the disease during migration.

In December 2020, Japan culled more than 11,000 birds after a strain called H5N8 was discovered at an egg farm in Higashiomi, Shiga prefecture in the southwestern part of the country. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries declared the outbreak as Japan's worst of its kind.

"The virus found in Japan is genetically very close to the recent Korean viruses and, thus, related to viruses in Europe from early 2020 -- not those currently circulating in Europe," said Madhur Dhingra, a senior animal health officer at FAO. "This means that we currently have two distinct epidemics in eastern Asia and Europe.”

Also in December 2020, South Korea accelerated the culling of poultry in H5N8 affected areas. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs reported South Korea's first farm-related case in Jeongeup, some 290 kilometers south of Seoul, in late November. South Korea culled 5.8 million chickens, ducks and quails in the last two months of 2020.

 

 

Biden Plans To Wield 'Bigger Stick' Against China

President Joe Biden will keep speaking loudly against China and its abuses but plans to wield a better designed bigger stick.

Biden's take on former President Theodore Roosevelt's "big stick diplomacy" saw him announce on Wednesday his intent to form a new task force to review and recalibrate the United States' strategy and operations against China.

He said the task force will make recommendations to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “so that we can chart a strong path forward on China-related matters.” 

“It will require a whole-of-government effort, bipartisan cooperation in Congress and strong alliances and partnerships,” said Biden of the review during his, and Vice President Kamala Harris', first meeting with Pentagon leaders Wednesday afternoon.

“That’s how we’ll meet the China challenge and ensure the American people win the competition of the future.”

Biden sees the rivalry between the U.S. and China as “the competition of the future." He voiced concerns about the “growing challenges” posed by China and its many threats to U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere.

President Joe Biden

The task force will present its findings to Austin within four months. Pentagon officials will discuss recommendations with Congress and others but no report to the public report is expected.

The task force will be headed by deputy national security adviser Ely Ratner. An expert in Asian foreign policy issues, Ratner is Biden's principal adviser on subjects concerning China. He was then-vice president Biden’s deputy national security adviser during the Obama administration.

Ratner's vast China experience will counterbalance Austin's relative lack of experience and knowledge in foreign affairs.

Some national security experts said Ratner's appointment as deputy national security adviser is a good sign for those that want to see Biden's national security team take a more competitive approach against China while working more closely with U.S. allies in Asia.

Pentagon officials described the impending strategic review as a “sprint" effort that will include inputs from U.S. intelligence, troops levels in the Indo-Pacific region and U.S. defense alliances, among many others.

Austin and Ratner will work together to craft the strategic review. Both are known China hawks intent on confronting Chinese abuses.

Austin, a retired four-star U.S. Army general and the first African-American defense secretary, said he intends to do what he can to prevent China gaining military superiority over the U.S.

He told a Senate committee during his nomination hearing he agreed with a recent Pentagon report saying China’s ambition is to transform the People's Liberation Army into an armed force equal to, and in some respects superior to, that of the United States by 2050.

“While that may be their goal, I would ... intend to make sure that never happens,” according to Austin.

Austin also announced a “global posture review” of the U.S. military last week. He intends to ensure the military’s presence around the world “aligns with our national interests" and affirm “we have the right capabilities in the right places."

The Trump administration focused almost solely on economic and trade concerns in its testy relationship with China. Its military moves against China concentrated on arming Taiwan to deter a Chinese cross strait invasion. It also conducted freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait separating Taiwan from mainland China. (11 Feb. 2021)

New U.S. Marines Littoral Combat Regiments Will Spearhead Fight Vs. China In Indo-Pacific

The U.S. Marine Corps is pushing forward with plans to organize, equip and train its first three "Marine Littoral Regiments" (MLRs) that will spearhead combat operations against the Chinese in the event of a future armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

It was only last week the Marines made known their intention to stand-up, or make operational, their first MLR. These more mobile but heavily-armed fighting units will be designed to execute the Marines' island-hopping strategy against the People's Liberation Army Ground Force and the People's Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps.

Initial plans call for an MLR consisting of 1,800 to 2,000 Marines and U.S. Navy sailors. An MLR will comprise a Littoral Combat Team, a Littoral Anti-Air Battalion and a Littoral Logistics Battalion

Brig. Gen. Benjamin Watson, Vice Chief of Naval Research and Commanding General, Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory, recently said the service plans to have the first MLR reach initial operational capability in Fiscal Year 2023, which starts October 2023. This MLR, the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment, will be based in Hawaii.

“There has been discussion of creating as many as three in the Pacific between now and 2030 and they would be forward-based in the Pacific, although they might–depending on the experimentation that we do–they might be rotational in terms of how we source some of the people that man these Marine Littoral Regiments,” said Watson.

“And then based on their -- where they’re home-based in the Pacific, elements would rotate on a regular basis further west,” he noted. “So working with allies and partners so that we persistently have a presence from each of the Marine Littoral Regiments out there in the western Pacific.”

Watson said the new MLRs can also fight in other geographies, including contested waters like the Black Sea near Russia or the Persian Gulf against Iran.

U.S. Marines

Watson described MLRs as fighting units optimized to fight and win in the complex littorals of the western Pacific. MLRs should also prove a useful tool for U.S. foreign policy in the Baltics, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Black Sea and any sort of close contested littoral terrain, according to Watson.

“So it’s a unit that’s designed to be lethal first and foremost, on land or at sea and from the land to the sea, to operate in distributed small units that are low signature and to bring capabilities that enable the larger naval or joint force, particularly in contested or a denied degraded environment.” (9 Feb. 2021)