Satellites that kill

(Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, December 30, 2001)

AMERICA'S MOST WANTED man, Osama bin Laden, avoids using wireless telephones. Some Western analysts say it's because he fears American spies could be listening to him with sophisticated eavesdropping devices.

Others believe it's because he remembers all too well the fate of another Muslim leader who paid with his life for talking too long on a wireless telephone.

Just five years ago, on the night of April 21, 1996, Dzhokhar Dudayev, president of the rebellious Muslim republic of Chechnya and the most wanted man in Russia, stepped out of a small house in a forest some 20 kilometers from the Chechen capital of Grozny to make a phone call.

Dudayev

He switched on his Inmarsat (International Maritime Satellite) telephone and called up Konstantin Borovoy, a liberal deputy in the Russian Parliament who served as his Moscow liaison.

According to Borovoy, he and Dudayev were discussing peace terms being offered by Russian President Boris Yeltsin to end the costly war. The two-year war for independence being waged by the predominantly Muslim republic of Chechnya began in December 1994 and was going badly for the Russian army.

Dudayev, a former general in the Soviet air force, had thwarted three previous attempts at detection by not talking too long on his satellite phone. Russian signals intelligence (Sigint) aircraft such as the electronics-packed Ilyushin IL-76 had tried in vain to lock onto Dudayev's phone signal since January.

This time, however, Dudayev and Borovoy had to talk at length because the peace offer was of vital importance. The Russians had no Sigint aircraft in the air that evening.

But one low flying Suhkoi Su-25 ground attack aircraft was in the vicinity. As the Su-25 circled, its pilot received the coordinates of Dudayev's location.

The Russian pilot quickly "painted" the target coordinates with his laser designator and fired his supersonic air-to-ground missiles. One missile hurtled toward Dudayev who was still talking on his satellite phone.

The missile's 110-kilogram warhead exploded a short distance from Dudayev, who died minutes later.

Dudayev's assassination, which the Chechens blame on Russia's secret service, would not have been possible without the crucial information pinpointing Dudayev's location. Evidence has since suggested that the source of that information may have been an American Sigint satellite.

The Americans strongly deny any role in Dudayev's death. Some Western military analysts, however, argue that the Russians didn't have the equipment to mount such a sophisticated attack.

They suggest that a Western satellite, most probably American, supplied the vital information that led to Dudayev's demise.

The "likely suspects" in the Dudayev episode are the "Chalet" and "Magnum" Sigint satellites operated by America's super-secret National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

Chalet/Vortex satellite

This agency, whose existence was only officially acknowledged in the 1990s, operates all the satellites used by different agencies for taking pictures and listening to transmissions. Twelve Chalet and Magnum satellites are believed to be operational, and may have been secretly reinforced by others since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, D.C.

Resembling huge umbrellas with their stalks pointed earthward, the Chalet (now known as Vortex) and Magnum satellites are basically passive radio receivers that intercept signals from cellular phones, satellite phones, military "walkie-talkies" and other wireless communication devices.

From their orbital stations 22,000 miles in space, they "listen" to the electromagnetic signals of millions of low-powered radio and mobile phones every day and relay this data to supercomputers at the US National Security Agency (NSA) for analysis.

The four or six Magnum satellites, whose umbrella-shaped receiving antennas are 100 meters in diameter, are equipped with "feed horn" arrays that allow them to intercept signals from widely different locations.

During the 1991 Gulf War, one of the Magnums had a feed horn intercepting Iraqi communications in Kuwait, Baghdad and nearby locations at the same time. Under favorable conditions, these satellites can apparently keep track of individual mobile phone conversations, as well.

The Chalet satellites, of which four are said to be in operation, are older versions of the Magnums and are supported by a much older Sigint fleet of six satellites that goes by the name of Rhyolite.

Bin Laden

The alleged use of either a Chalet or Magnum satellite in the Dudayev episode illustrates the extreme vulnerability of electronic communications to clever spies such as the NSA.

The week after Sept. 11, an unknown number of America's Sigint satellites were reported to have been "re-tasked" to hunt down Bin Laden. Previously, many of these satellites kept watch over America's strategic competitors such as Russia and China and avowed enemies such as Iraq.

The re-tasking of some Sigint satellites probably involved adjusting the satellites' orbits so that the satellites' feed horns point at Afghanistan.

It is apparent that the US military hopes their Sigint satellites will intercept phone conversations of Bin Laden or his network, a task made easier by the small size and minimal communications in Afghanistan. Any electronic emitter not proven to be from a friendly source can be assumed to be hostile and thus a target for tracking and analysis.

Bin Laden and al-Qaida cannot maintain radio silence indefinitely. This was proven when Bin Laden called his mother on his satellite phone, a call that was probably intercepted by a Sigint satellite and later revealed to the media.

The disclosure of this taped intercept apparently made him more cautious about making phone calls and caused him to rely more on human couriers to transmit orders to his widely dispersed terrorists.

Some satellite experts, however, contend that the incredible capabilities of America's Sigint satellites may not be as effective when used against small, dispersed bands of terrorists who make it a point to maintain radio silence. The satellites work best against large organized units such as an enemy army that cannot function effectively without electronic communications.

Keyhole satellite photo of a Taliban base in Afghanistan.

An enemy with sparse communications, or who practices good signals security, is less vulnerable to signals espionage from space. Locating an electronically silent Bin Laden via Sigint thus becomes dependent on lucky intercepts.

Complementing America's Sigint satellites in Afghanistan are airborne Sigint systems that include the U-2R and TR-1 spy planes and RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft that carry passive electronic sensors for monitoring electronic emitters such as satellite phones.

RC-135 Rivet Joint Sigint aircraft

The Sigint satellites are part of an overall intelligence gathering campaign that also embraces imaging intelligence (Imint) satellites whose cameras can identify surface objects less than three inches in size from 300 miles up while traveling at more than 20,000 miles per hour.

The newest "Keyhole" Imint satellites also have heat-sensing infrared capabilities that allow them to see targets on the ground at night.

A new generation of in-orbit radar imagery satellites, called "Lacrosse" or "Vega," also make it possible to obtain high-resolution images of the ground even through heavy cloud cover.

White Cloud satellite

Electronic intelligence (Elint) satellites are also included in this intelligence mix. A primary Elint program is "White Cloud," a satellite constellation that is the US Navy's principal means of over-the-horizon reconnaissance and target designation for its weapons systems that include surface-to-surface missiles.

It is estimated that the United States has over 200 military satellites in orbit with four to five being added to this number every year. These satellites cost the Americans over $100 billion, according to some estimates.

Sigint, Imint and Elint satellites provide the long-distance ears and eyes of a combined effort to ferret out Bin Laden and al-Qaida in Afghanistan's inhospitable terrain. They give the United States and its allies a significant technological edge, but will not produce victory in Afghanistan.


Art Villasanta is a major contributor to a weekly on-line magazine about Asian satellites. He has created a website for Filipino veterans of the Korean War.

Who will be the first real Filipino astronaut?

THE ACRONYM FOR the Axe Apollo Space Academy, which is AASA, pretty much spells out what the Filipino who “wins” this contest can expect from it.

“AASA,” which is Filipino for the verb “to expect,” is an apt acronym considering the questionable claims Unilever puts forward for this marketing gimmick. The Filipino who survives the voting and vetting process will do well to consider these realities:

• “Aasa ka ba” (Do you expect) that you’re an astronaut in the accepted sense of that word? The answer is “No.”
• “Aasa ka ba” that you’ll orbit the Earth? The answer is “No.”
• “Aasa ka ba” that you’ll reach space? The answer is “Yes.” 
• “Aasa ka ba” that history will remember you as the first Filipino astronaut? The answer is “No” because you were never one in the first place. 

Now before the geniuses at Unilever and fans of this gimmick go apoplectic at my apparently unpatriotic claims, I’d like to make one point perfectly clear.

Yuri Gagarin, the first human in space

I’m all for having a Filipino astronaut. One thousand percent in favor.

The Philippine Daily Inquirer published my story, “Who will be the first Filipino astronaut?” about the need for a Filipino astronaut over a decade ago. And this January, the Inquirer published my latest story about space, “Business at satellite speed.”

Between then and now, I’ve published a lot of stories about space, spaceflight and satellites in the Inquirer and in websites that deal with space.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: our first astronaut should be a Filipino citizen our race can be proud of. This national pride will stem from the exceptional achievements of this person.

In the traditional sense, an astronaut is almost superhuman.

Ed White, the first American
to walk in space.

From the start of human spaceflight in 1961 until the advent of private spaceflight in 2004, the word astronaut held godlike connotations. And with good reason.

These men and women were mature individuals with high intelligence, high physical capabilities, extensive experience or a combination of these qualities. They trained at becoming astronauts for months or years.

They were some of the best human material their nations had.

Astronauts made Americans proud to be Americans; Russians proud to be Russians; Malaysians proud to be Malaysians and Chinese proud to be Chinese.

Does anyone think a Filipino who simply pops into space for less than five minutes, and who receives about a week’s training before this “spaceflight” can be called an astronaut?

Yang Liwei, China's first yuhangyuan

Will this person make you proud to be a Filipino?

He will? Really?

And when someone asks you what space program launched the first Filipino astronaut into space, can you proudly reply, “He was sent into space by a men’s underarm deodorant!”

Will that make you proud to be Filipino?

The very thought of it makes me cringe.

Space is no place for “pa-pogian” winners of a text-voting contest who’ll be passengers aboard a “space plane” that hasn’t even made its first spaceflight as of this writing. The contest will make you a guinea pig, not an astronaut.

And the answers to the “aasa” questions at the beginning of my story:

• You can’t be considered an astronaut in the accepted sense of that word because an astronaut is a professional space traveler trained by a human spaceflight program to command, pilot or serve as a crew member of a spacecraft. The winners of this underarm marketing gimmick should be more properly identified as “space tourists.”
• You won’t orbit the Earth. The untested space plane you’ll ride in will pop briefly into space at the apogee or highest point of its flight, and then quickly fall back to Earth.
• You’ll probably be in space for less than five minutes so you won’t even complete one Earth orbit. It takes a Space Shuttle in low Earth orbit some 90 minutes to complete one Earth orbit. Space or outer space lies at an altitude of 100 kilometers or 62 miles above sea level. The deodorant space plane had better exceed this altitude or else goodbye bragging rights.
• Yes, you’ll be in space for the reason stated above. You’d better have your camcorder or cellphone camera at the ready because that brief intrusion into outer space could be over before you have time to take video. Oh, I forgot. You can’t operate the small buttons on your camcorder and cellphone because you’ll be wearing bulky spacesuit gloves. Goodbye, Facebook post.

Do you honestly want to be remembered as the first Filipino “astronaut” in these laughable circumstances? It’s up to you.

But, hey, you won and beat a million other guys worldwide for the chance to ride into space. That’s a great achievement--but it doesn't make you an astronaut.

The first real Filipino astronaut should make us proud to be Filipinos.

Now, who will be the first real Filipino astronaut?

Sword from the Heavens

(Published in 2007) 

THE MIDDLE EAST is definitely a more dangerous place these days and, depending upon your point of view, satellites have played key roles in either creating this dangerous instability, or in preventing a nuclear war from breaking out.

Consider the following:
Unconfirmed, but persistent, reports state eight Israeli fighter bombers launched a night attack on a nuclear facility inside Syria on September 5 to prevent the processing of weapons grade plutonium supplied to Syria by North Korea and destined for Iran.

Such a night attack could only have been possible with the aid of GPS (Global Positioning System) and GPS guided bombs. U.S. satellites probably confirmed the location of the Syrian nuclear facility that was producing the material for nuclear weapons.

Neither Israel or the United States confirms or denies the attack.

In a rare show of technological braggadocio, Iran claims to be using “highly advanced satellite technology” to monitor U.S. troop movements in neighboring Iraq.

Sina-1

Iran has only one in-orbit spy satellite (the 170kg Sina-1 launched by Russia in 2005 and ostensibly an earth resources satellite), but this carries two low-resolution cameras.

This means Iran must be using the satellite of a third party provider, perhaps Russia or commercially available satellite imagery, to spy on U.S. forces in Iraq, and probably provide intelligence to Iraqi insurgents.

Israel will soon launch its Polaris/TechSAR satellite soon. Israel's most advanced radar imaging spy satellite, Polaris/TechSAR will keep tabs on Iran and its nuclear facilities.

Israel orbited an advanced photoreconnaissance satellite, Ofeq-7, only last June to spy on Iran and Syria. India will launch the Polaris/TechSAR satellite on one of its PSLVs (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicles).

Saudi Arabia has acquired satellite guided, U.S.-made JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) guidance kits that transform iron or “dumb” bombs into smart bombs, thanks to GPS guidance.

JDAM bombs can weigh from 500 lbs. to 2000 lbs. Saudi Arabia is the only Middle East country other than Israel that carries JDAM smart bombs in its arsenal.

Excalibur

Pakistan and Egypt have pending requests for JDAMs. Satellite guided JDAMs have an accuracy, as measured by circular error probability (CEP), of 13 meters or less.

The U.S.-made “Excalibur” 155mm GPS guided artillery round deployed to Iraq assassinated Abu Jurah, a top al-Qaeda leader, who was meeting other terrorists in a building south of Baghdad.

Two Excalibur rounds took out Jurah and 14 others last July. It was the first publicized success for Excalibur, the world’s first satellite guided artillery shell to be used in combat. Excalibur, fired from the new U.S. M777 howitzer, has a CEP of six meters and a range of 30 km.

More Israeli satellites
By offering a “god’s-eye view” of surface activity day or night, in good weather or bad, today’s military satellites provide real-time intelligence that tends to prolong peace in a region as explosive as the Middle East.

As the rumored raid by Israel into Syria has shown, satellites might just have helped snuff out the threat of a nuclear war by depriving Iran of weapons grade plutonium necessary in manufacturing nuclear weapons.

Israel today counts on two-photoreconnaissance satellite to stand watch over its neighbors, Iran and Syria, as well as “watch” other points of interest in the Middle East.

Partnering the recently launched Ofeq-7 is Ofeq-5. The Ofeq vehicles are high-resolution imaging satellites used solely for military intelligence.

The 300 kg Ofeq-7 went into orbit last June to fill the gap in the coverage of distant high-priority areas in the Middle East including Iran.

Israel then intends to loft Amos-3, its third military communications satellite, later this year. Following the launch of Polaris/TechSAR comes Ofeq-8, a new type of satellite. The Amos-4 communications satellite is also up for launch.

Polaris/TechSAR

The next generation Israeli spy satellites (starting with Ofeq-8) will carry new high-resolution cameras that feature greatly improved imaging without significantly increasing the weight of the spacecraft. It will employ PAN (panchromatic) and MS imaging cameras and PAN-sharpening functions.

The use of Israel’s homegrown Shavit launch vehicle to launch Ofeq-7 also has greater significance: it was a signal to Iran that its entire territory was within the range of Shavit, which is a nuclear capable ballistic missile in its military configuration.

Preceding the Ofeq-7 launch were three successful launches in February and March, all kept under wraps by a news blackout. Russia is said to have reacted to these secret Israeli spy satellites by orbiting a new Cosmos spy satellite to keep closer watch on Israel.

Israel stepped-up its satellite spying following a Knesset report that confirmed the vital contribution of satellite imagery to reliable intelligence. The parliamentary report included a recommendation to expedite Israel’s espionage satellite development “as a long-term visual intelligence infrastructure in the regional strategic balance”.

Iran is a leading target for Israel’s enhanced satellite spying campaign. Israeli analysts said Israeli military intelligence places the highest priority on the detailed monitoring of Iranian efforts to obtain nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and the development of long-range weapons delivery systems such as the Iris launch vehicle.

High-resolution satellite imagery has become one of Israel’s major intelligence assets, hence the appearance of Ofeq-7, Ofeq-8, Polaris/TechSAR and Amos-3 and -4.

Some of the technologies used by Israeli spy satellites include multi-spectral (MS) imagery, which captures images in different wavelengths, including color. Analysis of images at different wavelengths can reveal the presence of hidden objects.

Dual use satellites
Described by some military analysts as spy satellites, the two in-orbit Israeli Eros satellites—Eros A and Eros B—are owned and operated by the Israeli company, ImageSat International. These “dual use” satellites complement Israeli military satellites in keeping watch on the Middle East.

Eros A carries a high-resolution camera capable of discerning objects 1.8 meters across while the newer Eros B can identify objects 70 centimeters across and is now used to monitor Iran’s nuclear program. Each of the satellites passes over Israel and neighboring states four times a day.

Eros A has a planned lifespan of 10 years in orbit and is scheduled to remain in service until 2010, when it will be replaced by the more advanced Eros C.

Smaller and better
Israel also intends to upgrade the quality of its future spy satellites by taking the lead in developing what are considered the next generation nanosatellites (10kg) and microsatellites (100kg).

These new satellites will be launched from specially configured Israeli jets in much the same way air-to-air missiles are launched. Scientists at Rafael and Israel’s Armament Development Authority are examining technology to upgrade existing missiles with more powerful engines and install microsatellites in their noses.

Israel expects to have these small satellites available by 2008, but first for civilian use. Israel’s defense industry will build these small satellites.

The increasing popularity of miniaturized satellites corresponds to a U.S. new strategic concept, the “Operationally Responsive Space” initiative.

This plan attempts to give the U.S. the ability to quickly launch appropriately configured satellites in a matter of months instead of years, as is the norm today, in response to an emergency situation. Hence the U.S. interest in Polaris/TechSAR, which is a small satellite weighing just 360kg.

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), builder of TechSAR-1, last April was reported to have reached an agreement with Northrop Grumman Space Technology that gives the U.S. company rights to sell modified versions of the spacecraft to the Pentagon. IAI and Northrop Grumman hope a successful launch of Polaris/TechSAR will increase the Pentagon’s interest in miniaturized satellites.

Northrop is attempting to convince the White House to include funding for TechSAR clones in its 2009 budget request to Congress. If this program is approved, initial plans call for IAI to ship the basic platform to be modified at Northrop Grumman’s facilities in California.

The Pentagon plans to demonstrate the concept by launching a series of experimental Tactical Satellites, or TacSats, and conducting military simulations and field exercises. The first of those satellites, TacSat-2, was launched in December 2006.

TacSat-2

Northrop Grumman said TechSAR fits the bill for Operationally Responsive Space. It said TechSAR-1 is an operational system that can be built, from the time receipt of order, in 28 months.

The Challenge from Iran
The launch of the Russian-made Sina-1 (or Mesbah, meaning lantern) marked the start of Iran’s accelerated space program, said Israeli analysts.

A second satellite, this one made by Iran, is expected in 2008. Iran is known to have developed a satellite launch vehicle of the Shahab family similar to North Korea’s Taepodong 2 missile, also named Iris.

Iran officially declared its space ambitions in 2003 with the announcement it would launch its first satellite with a home-produced booster rocket within 18 months. This was the Russian-built Sina-1, which carries two cameras and communication equipment.

Although Iran claims Sina-1 is designed to locate and monitor natural resources and perform similar missions, Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources believe the satellite is part of Iran’s future military space program.

Israel has often warned that the Iranian space program is being used as camouflage to allow Iran to develop its long-range ballistic missile program without nuclear non-proliferation treaty restrictions.

Analysts said Iran achieved its significant missile technology know-how through its cooperation with North Korea. An advanced Iranian version of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile appears capable of either carrying satellites or a nuclear warhead.

Powers in the Middle East
Israel and Iran are the Middle East’s leading space powers. They are also enemies, and that is to be regretted as advances in their space programs now have roots in their overarching need to gain military advantage.

But let’s not forget that Iraq—yes, Iraq—was the first Muslim country and the 10th nation on Earth to successfully orbit a satellite.
Iraq achieved this feat on December 5, 1989 with a satellite launched from the Al-Anbar Space Research Center 50 miles west of Baghdad. The rocket is said to have been a modified version of Argentina’s Condor ballistic missile.

Other Middle East countries might soon duplicate Iraq’s feat (Saudi Arabia is a prime candidate) thereby complicating the Middle East equation.

As it stands now, however, satellites guard the peace in the Middle East. That peace must continue.

The Red Dragon is dying

CHINA IS BEGINNING to self-destruct, and there’s nothing it can do to prevent this.

A report commissioned by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates China’s economic decline will become irreversible beginning 2020.

The Black Hole that will put paid to China's goal of becoming the next global hegemon is a little known demographic twist called the "Lewis Turning Point."

Vanishing manpower pool 
China’s 9.9% average annual GDP growth from 1979 to 2010 was fueled by a vast surplus army of rural workers numbering in the millions. This army became the factory workers paid some P3,000 a month who made the cheap products that allowed China to become the “Factory of the World.”

Two years from now or by 2015, China’s working age population will reach its highest level and then tumble into an irreversible decline.

By the 2030s, China’s working age population will shrink by 0.7% per year causing a labor shortage of 140 million workers within the decade. In contrast, China's working age population since the 1980s grew at the average annual rate of 2%.

More ominously, the growth rate of the core working group or those with ages from 20 to 39, the most productive segment, shrank to zero in 2010 and is projected to decline faster than the overall working age population through 2035.

Crossing the Lewis Point of no return
China this January confirmed this contraction had already begun. It admitted its working age population had indeed fallen—but far sooner than expected.

The IMF report said that based on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge in China between 2020 and 2025. The disintegration of Communist China will then become inexorable.

The Lewis Turning Point is the point at which an economy like China moves from a vast supply of low-cost workers to one with an acute labor shortage. The cost to China of this transition will be severe.

The Lewis Turning Point means China can no longer rely on cheap labor, copycat technology and export-led growth to keep growth going. It is also forcing foreign manufacturers to transfer operations to cheaper countries such as India and Vietnam whose minimum wages are currently some 40% lower than China’s.

As China’s agriculture surplus labor evaporates, “. . . industrial wages rise faster, industrial profits are squeezed, and investment falls. At that point, the economy is said to have crossed the Lewis Turning Point,” said the IMF in its report, “Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?”

All these will signal the end of the old economic model based on low-cost labor and massive exports that made China so successful.

The Lewis Turning Point is named after Nobel laureate Sir Arthur Lewis, an economist, who first broached the concept in “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor,” a paper written in 1954.

A report by a separate team of researchers said the concern “. . . raised by China's changing demographics is not the prospect of slower economic growth itself, but the potential for slower growth to trigger a social and political crisis.

“By the 2020s, demographic trends may weaken the two principal pillars of the PRC government's political legitimacy: rapidly rising living standards and social stability.”

And as it is run by an inert communist bureaucracy, China will be unable to transition to a private consumption economy from an investment-driven economy in time to blunt the effects of the Lewis Turning Point.

Adapt or die
The result of this failure will be intense economic pain the likes of which China has not experienced since the disastrous Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s when millions of Chinese died from starvation due to communist mismanagement.

For China, the Lewis Turning Point means that its extensive growth model will not be sustained. China is left with the options of accepting the consequences of this inevitable demographic danger, or denying it and curtailing individual freedoms to curb the social unrest that will most certainly follow.

There is little China can do to prevent the Lewis Turning Point. Ensuring this are the effects of China’s misguided “One-Child Policy” begun in 1979 that prevented some 400 million babies from being born, and China’s current low fertility rate of 1.8 lifetime births per woman (from 5.0 in the 1970s).

Besides losing its young work force, China’s population is also aging faster. The United Nations estimates the share of elderly Chinese (or those 65 and older) in the population will double from only 8% in 2010 to 16% by 2030 and will triple to 24% by 2050.

In the next 25 years, China will have an older population than the USA.

Still a developing nation
China’s rapid aging comes at an awkward moment in its history. Today's developed nations became affluent before they became aging societies. China, however, will achieve the opposite.

This means that China will not be able to fully implement the social protections such as social security, pensions and other safety nets for the elderly that are the norm in developed economies. Today, less than a third of China's workforce has formal retirement benefits.

For China’s elderly, the future is dire since the state and a smaller pool of younger workers will be unable to support them in their “Golden Years.”

The UN said China had 7.8 working age adults available to support each of its elderly in 2010. This ratio will fall to 3.8 by 2030 and to 2.4 by 2050.

This decline means the average burden borne by each worker will triple. As a consequence, many of China’s elderly will face death alone and without adequate social safety nets.

Too heavy a price
There is a price to pay for progress. In China’s case, that price has been obscured by its enviable economic growth over the past three decades.

Despite a per capita GDP double that of the Philippines, China remains a developing nation like the Philippines.

China’s goal of becoming a developed nation is in serious jeopardy—if not already an impossibility—because of the Lewis Turning Point and unfavorable demographics.

This turning point that will shatter its ambition of sustaining itself as the world’s largest economy, and could ignite a social upheaval that might destroy the communist state.

The last thing we remember on Earth . . .

(Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, 27 January 2014)

“WHAT HAPPENS after we close our eyes for the last time?”

For an atheist, the answer’s easy. We won’t ever open our eyes again.

There’s no After Life: no joyous reward for the good, no perpetual damnation for the evil. Heaven and hell are what we make out of this life. So live each day as if it were the last.

For zealous Christians, the answer’s easy, too. They’ll awake in Heaven and to a life of eternal bliss in the presence of Jesus Christ. And zealous Christians know Hell is the only destination for the damned.

For indifferent Christians, however, there doesn't seem to be a definite answer. There’s only the frantic hope that Heaven will be there when they re-awaken.

For religious non-Christians, the answer to this question probably depends on the intensity of their love for God as they perceive Him.

Working towards heaven or an eternal reward is a goal that gives meaning to the lives of many. That’s a good thing.

It’s only logical that good people seek a reward for lives well lived in an After Life of eternal joy.

But those who want heaven to be there when they re-open their eyes fear that one sin might deprive them of this just reward.

This concern need not turn into needless panic. The habit of goodness sears itself into one’s soul and unconsciously prepares one for the Final Second.

Your Final Thoughts are vital when your life flashes before your eyes and the Light begins to call you. If you've built a life of goodness, your Final Thoughts will reflect the person you really are.

And when your terrified eyes no longer see this world, your Final Thoughts will lead you towards your Destination.

The Last Thing we remember on earth will be the First Thing we see in Heaven.

At the Final Second, the memories of goodness done will flood our consciousness and serve as the key that unlocks the door to an eternal reward.

The good we've done will steel us into accepting Death as the rightful extension of this life. And the Door to our Eternal Reward.

Goodness is the key.

God will certainly reward the Fervent Few who remain true to His Book. But this fervor is improbable for the wretched legions whose lives are consumed by the terrible struggle against poverty.

What is left to us is the innate Goodness that is God’s mirror in every person.  So that even if physically and mentally ruined, a person can hold up this mirror of Goodness to see himself as God sees him: a Creation to be saved—always.

Business at satellite speed

(Published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on 7 January 2013)

THE PRIVATE SECTOR must now take the lead in restoring the Philippines’ presence in space.

The government is beset by a plate-full of economic, national security and other concerns that limit its ability to spearhead the lofting of a new Philippine satellite that will assist in the expansion of national services beyond our crowded metropolitan regions, and at the same time help sustain the high economic growth we are experiencing.

Growth at this level can be stymied without the critical infrastructure satellite communications can provide. By its immunity from terrestrial disasters such as typhoons, a satellite can enhance long-distance communications and expand wireless broadband Internet coverage across our entire archipelago. National security, disaster preparedness and distance learning are just a few of the many benefits a satellite orbiting serenely in space will support.

For business firms, a satellite enhances the point-to-multipoint communications that can boost sales and cut costs. It also expands broadband access to the Internet, which is undoubtedly the home page of 21^st century business. A satellite allows companies to have a national presence from the first day of service without the costly terrestrial infrastructure that accompanies cellular and cabled services.

A necessity

Current business, national security and national development issues make it essential that the Philippines have its own dedicated space communications satellite to replace Agila-2, formerly the country’s only satellite that now orbits the Earth over the Middle East as ABS-3.

In January 2009, Mabuhay Satellite Communications, Inc., (MSC) a subsidiary of Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, sold Agila-2 to the Bermuda-based firm, Asia Broadcast Satellite Holdings Ltd. (ABS), for some Php400 million, extinguishing the Philippines’ lone foothold in space.

The loss of our only Philippine satellite was a severe blow to the country’s technological independence. It means that we continue to depend on satellites of competitor states for strategic business and military telecommunications.

Even worse is to not do anything about the loss of our own satellite in a digital age where technology multiplies national strength. This inaction will only serve to hold future Filipinos hostage to the whims of other nations.

Left behind

The Philippines is the only country among the top five richest Southeast Asian states without its own communications satellite. That must change.

Indonesia has 9 satellites; Malaysia has 4; Singapore, 9 and Thailand, 5. Even Vietnam now has its own satellites. In May 2012, Vietnam orbited Vinasat 2, its second satellite.

The business and security issues facing the Philippines today present both greater opportunities and greater threats that can successfully be addressed by a satellite dedicated to the Philippines’ unique interests.

A business edge with satellites

At the business end, a Philippine satellite can help provide the massive bandwidth required by mobile devices such as smartphones, tablet computers and laptops for high-speed, broadband Internet-on-demand, anytime, anywhere.

Satellite Internet can deliver download speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second in contrast to the hundreds of kilobits per second in terrestrial technologies such as 3G.

“Satellites can help return the Philippines to where it was more than 40 years ago when it was at the head of Asia, using technology to facilitate nationwide economic development and security, and not at the back of Asia,” said Tom van der Heyden, an American national and a leading satellite communications expert.

He believes a satellite catering to the Philippine market will make money and that pent-up demand will drive growth. The reach of a single satellite is far more extensive than what any terrestrial network can achieve.

Van der Heyden said a medium-sized satellite should be able to find clients for its on-board transponders in about 3 to 4 years based on the rapid demand for Internet and other nationwide communication requirements.

“The demand is high and the market huge, and this can sustain a number of Philippine satellites,” believes van der Heyden, who has made the Philippines his second home for the last 10 years and is married to a Filipina.

Broadband Internet via satellite

One of the key engines that will fuel demand for satellite communications will be wireless broadband Internet access and video applications. Van der Heyden said the incredible growth of the Internet is killing cellular companies because they can’t distribute wireless broadband Internet fast enough and maintain acceptable quality.

Globally, the Internet relies on satellites for “backhaul” or the link between a core network such as a telecoms provider or a broadcast network to the small sub-networks that distribute content. The point-to-multipoint capability of a satellite makes backhaul via satellite cheaper and more reliable than terrestrial telecommunications.

“It (backhaul) doesn’t exist here,” van der Heyden pointed out.

“It’s like living in a desert. I received a quote for a business DSL recently. The highest 'guaranteed' rate they’re offering is about one megabit for P50,000 per month. Who can afford to grow a business paying that kind of monthly fee, not to mention it’s only available in limited areas!”

What exists here is an expensive but vulnerable network of terrestrial cellular and fixed broadband base stations that rely on fiber optic cables to distribute content throughout the archipelago. The result is very expensive Internet and slow download speeds.

The dearth of broadband capacity is also the reason for the popularity of WiMAX or the Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access. WiMAX is a technology that provides wireless broadband access to a wider area covering several kilometers.

WiMax is gaining traction because it’s an economical solution to the “last mile problem” that makes current Internet technologies such as 3G so expensive. Despite this, WiMax can only reach out to a few kilometers as against a satellite that can provide wireless broadband service to subscribers in an area hundreds of kilometers in size.

A satellite is ideal for bringing broadband to the last mile of residences and businesses, thereby lowering Internet costs. Satellite networks are also extremely predictable compared to terrestrial Internet Protocol networks that are a mix of different networks. This means satellite networks can deliver a constant and uniform quality of service to thousands of locations, irrespective of geography.

If Europe and North America continue to build and launch satellites focused on Internet service, then there should be no question of a satellite’s value to an archipelago that has limited terrestrial infrastructure to cover its 7,000 islands.

Consortium needed

When the Philippines started thinking satellites in the 1990s, the Department of Transportation and Communications spearheaded the formation of consortium of telecom companies that invested millions of pesos to launch Agila since a single company was unable to raise the US$300 to US$400 million needed to launch the satellite.

We need incentives of this sort today to enable a consortium to launch a new Philippine satellite. Van der Heyden suggested that the government could provide enough incentives and tax breaks to encourage investors in the satellite business. 

“It’s a win-win already benefiting over 50 countries around the world. There’s no reason why the formula should be anything but better for the Philippines,” said van der Heyden.

The government can also help by guaranteeing its own capacity requirements on the new satellite. This capacity can be used for secure government communications, especially those made by the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and by commercial, business, banking, remote education and disaster recovery efforts.

Van der Heyden believes a firm government commitment to lease transponders could generate enough funding to launch a minimum of one or likely two satellites.

And if the private Filipino consortium wants to cut costs further, it can opt not to build a new satellite but instead partner with foreign business firms to buy a small satellite.

This will allow the partners to split costs and do commercial deals. The aim is to generate a faster return on investment by leasing transponders faster while reserving capacity for Philippine government needs.

A satellite transponder is a device that receives a radio signal and automatically transmits a different signal, often without changing the content of the received signal. Communications satellites earn money through transponder leasing.

Former MSC President Garie Pimentel, who is now an ABS executive, said the Southeast Asian satellite market is very competitive. The rising number of countries in Asia orbiting their own national satellites has resulted in overcapacity.

He said the new trends lean towards “hosted payloads,” “condo-sats” and other joint ventures. It is not essential that a country own a satellite if it cannot afford one. 

National security needs

The pressing needs of national security demand the Philippines gain control over its international communications, especially military communications via satellite. Secure military communications are vital for effective national action in conflict or potential conflict areas such as the West Philippine Sea.

This country cannot and should never rely on Indonesia or Malaysia, and especially China, to handle or control its military communications for obvious national security reasons. Pimentel concedes the country needs its own satellite communications. 

“For its security needs, I agree that the AFP’s VSAT network cannot be hosted on a satellite controlled by a foreign power. One can easily imagine what would happen to this network should the country be in conflict with the country that controls this satellite.”

The primordial business need to seize competitive advantages is bound to drive Filipino businessmen, especially those involved in information and communications technology, to once again consider the profitable opportunities that accrue from operating their own commercial satellite.

Now is the time to do so.

Ad for the former Agila-2, which now serves Africa ad ABS-3

Editor’s Note: Art Villasanta and Peter Galace have been writing about satellites and the space industry for well over a decade. They co-authored an extensive research and market study about Philippine telecommunications for an international research firm. Galace also co-wrote the only book written by Filipinos about the history of the world’s commercial satellite industry.

Only memories and memorials will remain

RIZAL WAS RIGHT: a person has to recall the lessons of his past to forge a better future. Taking this adage to embrace the Filipino nation means Filipinos must cast a studied eye at past greatness to exceed that greatness in the future.

This country is a Great Nation. But it is a Nation that has forgotten the meaning of greatness because it refuses to recognize the greatness in its past.

For some Filipinos whose minds are warped by the archetypal image of the downtrodden Pinoy, these bold statements will be shocking. These Filipinos will be hard pressed to remember a time in our history when Filipinos were great.

What they will see are some four centuries of unrelieved Spanish tyranny; close to five decades of petty American “culture” and three years of inhuman Japanese brutality.

Where is the greatness in this litany of oppression?

Memories of Filipino greatness

The greatness lies in that the Filipino Nation defeated four centuries of imperial racism by these colonial empires.

The greatness lies in the Filipino Nation defeating the hated Spaniards in 1898. A local revolt in what is now Quezon City triggered in 1896 by an obscure warehouse helper named Andres Bonifacio grew so rapidly that it had reduced Spain’s hold on the Philippines to the single city of Intramuros by 1898.

Filipino revolutionaries, mostly unlettered farmers armed with bolos and bamboo spears and emboldened by an enduring hatred of the Spaniard, had inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Spanish Empire and had wrested control of Las Islas Filipinas from the unwelcome invader.

Independence would have been ours had not the Americans intervened in 1898. It became ours in 1946 but only after a vicious war against the barbaric Japanese that left some one million Filipinos dead by 1945, out of a population of only 17 million Filipinos.

Filipino guerillas, mostly unlettered farmers armed with bolos and bamboo spears like their Revolutionary fathers and emboldened by an intense hatred of the Japanese, had helped inflict one of the greatest military defeats in the history of the Empire of Japan.

Of the 380,000 Japanese invaders in the Philippines in October 1944, only 40,000 remained alive when the Imperial Japanese Army surrendered to Filipinos in Kiangan, Ifugao on September 2, 1945. The Philippines was the largest grave of Japanese soldiers in Southeast Asia during World War 2.

What is not well known even until today is how effective the Filipino was in the guerilla war against the Japanese. When the Americans returned to the Philippines at Leyte in October 1944, Filipino guerillas controlled 36 of the Philippines’ 48 provinces.

This almost complete Filipino domination of the countryside meant that fighting was limited to pockets of Japanese resistance, mostly in the larger cities in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Some of these pockets such as those in north Luzon proved difficult to crush, but the task of exterminating the Japanese would have been much harder for the Filipino-American allies had the Japanese held the countryside.

The Japanese did not, and this disadvantage proved fatal to them in the long-run since they were unable to deploy soldiers, equipment and supplies freely to where they were needed. Filipino guerillas blockaded roads, destroyed bridges and attacked Japanese convoys almost at will. American airpower constricted Japanese movements even more.

The great Battle of Bessang Pass in Ilocos Norte from February to June 1945—the greatest victory by Filipinos over the Japanese—was an all-Filipino battle that proved the martial superiority of Filipinos over the Japanese in the attack.

By defeating the entrenched Japanese who held positions in hills and ridges some 1,500 meters high, the Filipino guerillas of the United States Army Forces in the Philippines-Northern Luzon (USAFIP-NL) put to a victorious end to the most vicious close quarter battle of the Liberation, and finally surrounded the remnants of the Imperial Japanese Army in north Luzon in a ring of steel from which they were unable to escape.

Memorials to Filipino greatness

But it was the great defensive struggle for Bataan and Corregidor from January to May 1942 that most vividly illustrates the innate greatness of the Filipino.

Unprepared, ill-equipped and mostly untrained, the Filipinos of the Commonwealth Army fatally disrupted Japan’s timetable for conquest by their superhuman endurance and bravery. Our resistance against mammoth odds set the stage for an unbroken string of Japanese defeats that began at the Battle of Midway a month after the surrender of Corregidor, and ended with the annihilation of the Imperial Japanese Army in the Philippines in September 1945.

With our blood and suffering, we had bought time for the Americans to counterattack, and for Freedom to win in the end.

All this, most Filipinos of today remain contentedly unaware.

If you do want to be inspired by tangible monuments to our past heroism, go on a pilgrimage to Bataan and Corregidor, the Holy Shrines to Filipino Heroism.

But before you embark on the guided tour of these Sacred Grounds, first immerse yourself in their history. Read about our resistance in the Second World War so you will see beyond the immediate images of shattered buildings, massive mortars and battlegrounds long since overgrown with new grass.

Your mindset must be that of a religious pilgrim, not that of a tourist. A religious pilgrim sees the significance behind the symbols; a tourist sees symbols merely as backgrounds for his photographs.

Your tour guide will go on and on about battlegrounds that have since become tourist spots. He will crack jokes and in the main resemble something of an entertainer.

Forget his facetiousness, and remember the ground on which you tread has been sanctified by the blood of our grandfathers and fathers.  Tread lightly and with reverence.

This sacredness is more palpable on Corregidor. I visited “The Rock” on April 7 as part of a group that took part in the “Araw ng Kagitingan” (Day of Valor) commemoration. This group consisted of a few World War 2 veterans and a horde of young people who traveled to the island on board the BRP Pampanga, a search and rescue vessel of the Philippine Coast Guard.

The trip was arranged by the Philippine Veterans Affairs Office (PVAO), the government agency that looks after the welfare of Filipino veterans of all our wars and internal conflicts.

Corregidor had changed substantially since I last visited in the 1970s. It’s very tourist friendly, meaning that the wants and needs of tourists are adequately met by the island’s infrastructure and people.

Corregidor has been wonderfully preserved. The sheer commercialism of the tourist trade on which Corregidor thrives seems an affront to this Holy Shrine, but tourism seems the only way to make Filipinos realize the exceptional valor that ruled this island 60 years ago.

The massive mortars and guns of the Corregidor batteries remain the “star” of these guided tours. And, at every battery, tour guides give you ample time for “picture-picture.”

The guns have been painted a warm green. In contrast, they were unpainted when I first saw them decades ago. I must admit the dull and menacing color of naked steel was more impressive than the friendly green that coats these guns today.

At “Topside,” however, is the most imposing monument to Filipino gallantry on Corregidor. Here stands the “Filipino Heroes Memorial,” a shrine studded with statues and symbols honoring the Filipino soldier, guerilla and the Filipino Nation In Arms during World War 2.

 The most imposing, and the largest statue, is that honoring the Filipino guerilla. It depicts a muscular and bare chested Filipino farmer shouldering an Enfield rifle.

Wrapped around his left shoulder is the rope used to tie his carabao and resting against his right leg is the “araro” or plow used to till his field. A sheathed bolo hangs from a rope tied around his waist.

Behind him stands the tallest flagpole on the island from which flutters a huge National Flag.

It is an image both familiar and frightening. It is as if this gentle soul was forced into the brutal task of fighting so he could once again revert to his former and gentler self.

The many monuments on this island proclaim loudly about Filipino heroism and greatness. It will be impossible not to be awed by the magnificent symbolism.

On the sun-baked province of Bataan, however, the symbols to Filipino heroism are fewer and not at myriad as those on Corregidor. But they are much larger, and none is larger than the 92 meter tall Dambana ng Kagitingan Memorial Cross (Shrine of Valor Memorial Cross) at the peak of historic Mt. Samat.

The absence of massive guns and shattered buildings endows the Mt. Samat memorial shrine complex with a serenity that makes it difficult to comprehend the terror faced by Filipinos who stubbornly defended this ground against a better equipped enemy.

Here, on this hallowed ground 60 years ago, Filipinos fought the final actions in the doomed Battle for Bataan. They had held out months longer than the enemy anticipated, and had at one point come close to decisively defeating the Japanese in Bataan.

Here, Filipinos were shot, blasted, bayoneted and burned to death. Surrender did not halt their suffering. The murderous Bataan Death March saw the Japanese murder 10,000 surrendered Filipino fighting men along the 128 kilometer route from Bataan to Capas, Tarlac.

Try as one might, it proves difficult imagining that these horrific events took place here among the well-manicured gardens and lush greenery. Nature’s healing beauty has paved over the unspeakable horror this mountain witnessed six decades ago.