India Downplays Latest Bloody Border Clash With Chinese

India keeps downplaying a Chinese military incursion in the Nathu La pass between Bhutan and Nepal as nothing serious despite Indian media reports to the contrary.

An Indian Army statement dismissed reports of a bloody incursion by the Chinese military, saying there "was a minor face-off at Nathu La area of North Sikkim on 20 January 2021 and the same was resolved by local commanders as per established protocols."

This "minor incident" was only revealed Monday by the Indian Army. It occurred in north Sikkim and has since been "resolved," said the army.

The incursion was later identified as a Chinese border patrol that tried to enter Indian territory, but was forced back, said the army.

On the other hand, Indian media is reporting a violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops. What occurred last week was a bloody brawl between Indian and Chinese troops that resulted in injuries to men on both sides, said the Indian magazine, Swarajya, which labeled the incident a "unilateral aggression by China."

The magazine said Indian soldiers fought-off the Chinese intruders

The weekly English-language magazine India Today claims 20 soldiers of the People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF) were injured in the melee, as well as four Indian Army soldiers.

The most serious clash between both sides since the deadly June 15, 2020 fight in Ladakh occurred before India and China began their ninth round of military-to-military talks to resolve disputes around the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Eastern Ladakh region. The marathon talks lasted 16 hour. Results have not been made public.

The Sikkim region between Bhutan and Nepal is some 2,500 km (1,500 miles) east of the Ladakh. This night time fist fight in mountainous terrain in sub-zero temperatures led to the deaths of 20 Indian Army soldiers and at least 50 men of the PLAGF.

The "violent face-off" took place at the high-altitude terrain of the disputed Galwan Valley along the porous border called the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The LAC, which is 3,488 kilometers long, separates India's Ladakh province from China's Aksai-Chin region

The fatal clash was not unexpected. It followed a six-week-long stand-off between Indian and Chinese soldiers marked by fistfights and stone-throwing. Several soldiers from both sides were injured in a May 9 brawl. (Jan. 26, 2021)

US Will Disregard Law Telling China Coast Guard to Fire on Foreign Ships

 A new Chinese law authorizing the China Coast Guard to fire on foreign ships in the South China Sea and the East China Sea will likely not deter the U.S. Navy from conducting its provocative freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea and elsewhere in Asia.

The law is the first serious foreign policy challenge facing the new administration of President Joe Biden, who only took office on January 20. The Biden administration is expected to file a strong protest against the law, as will Japan.

China has revealed a new law that for the first time explicitly allows the China Coast Guard to fire on foreign vessels -- including military vessels -- in a dangerous move that makes the prospect of an armed conflict with the United States and Japan more likely.

The contentious Coast Guard Law  empowers the China Coast Guard to “take all necessary measures, including the use of weapons when national sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon by foreign organizations or individuals at sea."

The law also allows coast guard personnel to demolish other countries’ structures built on Chinese-claimed reefs and to board and inspect foreign vessels in waters claimed by China.

The bill empowers the China Coast Guard to create temporary exclusion zones “as needed” to stop other vessels and personnel from entering. The National People’s Congress standing committee, China’s top legislative body, passed the law on Friday.

Western military analysts said the law intends to cement China's illegal claim of ownership of the South China Sea against seven other Asian countries, and to frighten the Japanese into yielding the East China Sea.

Christian Le Miere, founder of Arcipel, a strategic advisory firm based in London and The Hague, said the new law “strikes at the heart” of America's policy of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

“China’s coast guard is already doing most of the heavy lifting in maritime coercion in the near seas, so it’s worth examining the new legislation just passed on this issue," he said.

The U.S., however, will likely disregard the law and has consistently declared illegal China's claim to own almost the entire South China Sea. In July 2017, the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague nullified China’s nine-dash line claim, which asserts control of most of the South China Sea. The Philippines brought the case against China to the International Court of Arbitration.

The U.S. under the former Trump administration increased the pace of its FONOPS in Asian waters. On New Year's Eve, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS John S. McCain (DDG-56) and USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54) conducted a two warship transit of the Taiwan Strait, drawing China's anger.

In an official statement, the U.S. Navy said the FONOP by the USS John S. McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur was "routine" and "in accordance with international law."

USS John S. McCain

"The ships' transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," said the Navy statement.

On December 22, McCain performed a FONOP in the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands, which Taiwan, China, and Vietnam all claimed to own. Two days later, the destroyer reappeared off Vietnam for another FONOP in the vicinity of the Con Dao Islands in the South China Sea in an unusual warning to Vietnam.

On December 18, the USS Mustin (DDG-89) also conducted a Taiwan Strait transit. A few days later, the PLAN's newest aircraft carrier, the CNS Shandong (CV-17), moved through the strait en route to the South China Sea. (Jan. 25. 2021)

Lack of Overseas Bases Dooms China's Bid for Naval Supremacy

Already the world's largest navy in terms of fleet size, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) nonetheless remains an isolated force unable to launch and sustain combat operations in far seas due to a crippling dearth of allies and overseas naval bases.

These glaring weaknesses are the greatest drawbacks bedeviling the PLAN, and will constrain and complicate its global expansion. It also makes PLAN easy prey for the U.S. Navy and allied navies such as the Royal Navy and the French Navy that enjoy the advantages of far sea basing.

These were the conclusions drawn in a new study, "Seizing on Weakness: Allied Strategy for Competing With China’s Globalizing Military," from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).

The study by CSBA Senior Fellow Toshi Yoshihara and Research Fellow Jack Bianchi is a deep look into China’s weaknesses, especially those of the PLAN, as they relate to its worldwide ambition of attaining economic and military dominance. These weaknesses will have to be exploited by China's adversaries to defeat China's grandiose aim of supremacy.

The report argues that “China faces an inescapable two-front dilemma in the continental and maritime directions, imposing built-in limits on its global ambitions.”

Explaining the study at a CSBA online forum, Yoshihara said China "can only dream about this access” to a friendly country's modern naval facilities and skilled shipyard workers to maintain its fleet’s combat readiness far from home and in enemy waters.

Yoshihara said China “has a long way to go” in finding countries in far seas willing to host PLAN naval bases since doing so will expose these countries to American attacks and economic retaliation in a war against China.

CNS Shandong (CV-17)

The immense challenge for China in far seas basing comes down to quality, durability, the reliability of the host nation and the quality of naval facilities and local labor.

On the other hand, Bianchi said the historic “paranoia of encirclement” on land and sea among China's communist leaders is a key driving force in the expansion and global ambitions of the PLAN. China, however, is finding this task far more challenging than anticipated.

“Going global is very hard,” Bianchi emphasized.

There is also the competing demand for the PLAN to defend China's long and vulnerable eastern shore from the U.S. Navy. PLAN commanders admit their anti-access, area denial (A2/AD) shore defenses based on long-range ballistic missiles won't stop the U.S. Navy from seeking out and destroying the PLAN surface fleet in the open ocean.

The persistent threat of U.S. Navy attacks on China's eastern front negates the requirement that the security of the mainland from naval attack is the basic prerequisite for the PLAN's global reach. (Jan. 24, 2021)

China Adds More Muscle to Military Forces on Hainan

China continues to bolster its air and naval forces on Hainan Island, its southernmost province located in the South China Sea.

Called by some Chinese military pundits as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier," Hainan has seen a steady inflow of warplanes of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) since last year. In addition, a massive dry dock capable of handling China's two aircraft carriers is close to completion at the Yulin Naval Base. This facility is also the main base for the submarine fleet of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

Western intelligence sources have detected the deployment of PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early-warning (AEWC) aircraft and KQ-200 long-range, anti-submarine and maritime patrol aircraft at the two of the island's major airports.

Also present on Hainan are BZK-005 high-altitude, long-range unmanned aerial drones used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. These drones have been used for spy missions over the East China Sea and have been detected by the Japanese.

Satellite photos show KJ-500 AEWC aircraft and BZK-005 drones deploying to the Lingshui Air Base operated by PLAN on Hainan's southeast coast. A PLAAF regiment is flying its KQ-200s out of the civilian-military Qionghai Bo'ao Airport on the island's east coast.

A PLAAF airbase in Hainan’s main city of Sanya is currently being modernized with the construction of a new apron, at least 11 new hangars and resurfacing of other taxiways.

The additional warplanes deployed to Lingshui and Qionghai will strengthen China’s reconnaissance capabilities over the South China Sea and its many disputed islands.

New satellite images show a new dry dock at at the Yulin Naval Base capable of accommodating the aircraft carriers CNS Liaoning (CV-16) and CNS Shandong (CV-17) is close to completion.

A dry dock on Hainan will greatly strengthen the PLAN's presence in the contested South China Sea. It indicates PLAN aircraft carriers will be permanently based on Hainan.

Taken together, these moves by China will considerably boost the PLAN's capability in the South China Sea, which is likely to see the start of any hostilities against the United States and its allies.

In December 2020, PLAN conducted a live fire exercise in the South China Sea involving naval and aircraft units drawn from the Yulin Naval Base. Western military analysts said the exercise sends a signal the Yulin Naval Base will be involved in any future conflict against the U.S. (Jan. 24, 2021)

U.S. Marines Forming New Combat Units to Battle China in Asia

The U.S. Marine Corps is pushing through with its plan to form a new combat unit designed to seize Chinese-held islands in the Indo-Pacific should armed conflict between the United States and China break out over the next decade.

The new, lethal and more mobile combat unit is designated the "Marine Littoral Regiment" or MLR. The Marines intend to stand-up, or make operational, their first MLR later this year. Other MLRs will be stood-up in succeeding years.

MLRs will be designed to execute the Marines' island-hopping strategy against the People's Liberation Army Ground Force and the People's Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps in the Indo-Pacific.

“We’re laser-focused on the Pacific," said Lt. Gen. Lewis Craparotta, commanding general of the Marine Corps Training and Education Command.

"And this is where you’ll see our first Marine Littoral Regiment come online. This is where we have our forward-based fifth-[generation] aircraft in [Marine Corps Air Station] Iwakuni."

Initial plans call for an MLR consisting of 1,800 to 2,000 Marines and U.S. Navy sailors. An MLR will consist of a Littoral Combat Team, a Littoral Anti-Air Battalion and a Littoral Logistics Battalion, according to USNI News.

Experimentation with the MLR began in 2020 to determine what this unit might look like, and involved the 3rd Marine Regiment in Hawaii. This storied unit, which belongs to the U.S. 3rd Marine Division and the III Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF), will eventually become the first operational unit in this new concept.

Marine commanders said III MEF will stand-up the first three MLRs and begin a three-year experiment to figure out how to best build and fight the regiments against the Chinese.

The plan is to convert the 3rd Marine Regiment into the experimental 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment, said Maj. Gen. Kevin Iiams, assistant deputy commandant for combat development and integration.

“We’ll put that all in, we’ll do some experimentation over the next couple of years out there in Hawaii to see what this will look like for a for an MLR,” said  Iiams.

U.S. Marines

In creating the MLRs, Marine Corps leaders are prioritizing naval integration between the Navy, which will carry Marines into battle, and the Marines themselves. The integration needed to create MLRs is seeing closer coordination to develop a joint warfighting concept between the staffs of U.S. Seventh Fleet, which is responsible for the Indo-Pacific, and III MEF.

“The MLR will be uniquely designed to maneuver and persist inside a contested maritime environment where its primary mission will be to conduct sea denial operations as part of a larger Naval Expeditionary Force,” said Marine Corps spokesman Maj. Josh Benson.

“The MLR being built in Hawaii over the next three years will be the first of its kind in the Marine Corps.”

Benson said the specifics of the MLR will begin to take shape over the next few years. He said experiments, wargames, modeling and simulation will be used in the phased approach to the MLR development.

Organizing the first MLR will first involve constructing the new formation mainly from units that already exist in Hawaii. Combat capabilities will then be incorporated.

“The largest muscle movements between now and the standup of the MLR will be structure and manpower adjustments," Benson revealed.

"While this is taking place, further refinement of associated capabilities and concept development will occur in order to ensure the first MLR is capable of contributing to the continued Force Design Phase III efforts.” (Jan. 23, 2021)

Biden will Be Tough on China; Stand with Taiwan

China, identified by the U.S. military as the most dangerous strategic threat to the United States, won't see any immediate easing of sanctions or diplomatic pressure under the Biden administration.

Despite immense areas of disagreement, both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump agree the U.S. must confront Chinese aggression with resolute strength. The Biden administration is expected to hold China to account for its human rights violations, especially against the Muslim Uyghur minority, and for its illegal territorial claims in the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Himalayas.

Team Biden agrees with the Trump administration on several “extremely touchy” issues concerning China. Early signals show the Biden administration “may change the tone and tenor of the conversation with Beijing -- but they’re not really gonna change the policy,” said Lanhee Chen, director of domestic policy studies and lecturer at Stanford University.

He pointed out that Antony Blinken, Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State, said during his confirmation hearing this week he agreed with the previous administration’s assessment that China committed genocide against the minority Uyghur Muslims.

Blinken also admitted Trump was "right in taking a tougher approach to China." On the other hand, he "very much" disagreed with the manner in which Trump went about this issue.

Blinken also “made clear that the U.S. will not be abandoning Taiwan anytime soon.” He told senators he remains in favor of greater engagement with Taiwan, or the Republic of China.

Antony Blinken

The U.S. is Taiwan’s largest arms supplier and most powerful international backer. This relationship flourished under Trump and seems set to continue under Trump.

Emily Horne, spokeswoman for the National Security Council (NSC), reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Taiwan remains "rock-solid."

"President Biden will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Asia-Pacific region -- and that includes Taiwan," said Horne.

Taiwan took heart when its de facto ambassador to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim, was invited to attended Biden's swearing-in on Wednesday.

Hsiao said she was honored to be at Biden's swearing-in representing Taiwan's government and people.

"Democracy is our common language and freedom is our common objective," she said in a video message to Taiwan.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen sent her congratulations to Biden, saying she hoped both countries can work together to maintain regional democracy, freedom, peace and stability.

Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was the first time Taiwan's Washington representative had formally been invited to the swearing-in of a U.S. president. It noted this gracious gesture reaffirms the close friendship between Taiwan and the U.S. based on shared values.

"These shared values are democracy, freedom and human rights," said ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou.

The United States severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979 to recognize China. The U.S., however, is bound by treaties to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. (Jan. 23, 2021)

Biden SecDef Nominee Says China a Greater Threat than Russia

Retired U.S. Army Gen. Lloyd Austin, President Joe Biden's nominee for Secretary of Defense, affirms China remains the most dangerous strategic threat facing the United States.

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee during his nomination hearing, Austin emphasized his focus as defense secretary will be on the threat posed by China. He believes China is the “pacing threat” confronting the U.S.

“Clearly the strategy will be arrayed against the threat and China presents the most significant threat going forward because China is ascending," said Austin.

"Russia is also a threat, but it’s in decline. It can still do a great deal of damage as we’ve seen here in recent days. And it’s a country that we have to maintain some degree of focus on, but China is the pacing threat.”

Austin told the senators the U.S. military maintains a qualitative edge over China. That advantage, however, is diminishing and must be remedied.

“We’ll have to have capabilities that allow us to hold – to present a credible threat, a credible deterrent, excuse me - to China in the future," Austin pointed out.

"We’ll have to make some strides in the use of quantum computing, the use of AI, the advent of connected battlefields, the space-based platforms. Those kinds of things I think can give us the types of capabilities that we’ll need to be able to hold large pieces of Chinese military inventory at risk."

Austin strongly believes the U.S. military retains a qualitative and competitive edge over China.

He also said he intends to revisit the Trump administration's 2021 National Defense Strategy that ranks China as the top threat to the U.S. The NDS lists the five greatest dangers to U.S. national security as China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and global terrorism.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin

"These are the same threats that Secretary Ash Carter described at the end of the Obama administration, but the order has changed," said the 2018 NDS.

"Whereas Carter had put Russia first, the Trump administration puts China first. Further, the administration’s strategy places greater emphasis on China and Russia than the other three threats."

The document describes China as a strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors while militarizing features in the South China Sea.

“I think much of the document is absolutely on track for today’s challenges, Mr. Chairman," said Austin in response to a question from Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK).

"As is the case with all strategies — if confirmed — one of the things that I would look to do is to work to update the strategy and work within the confines of the guidance and the policy issued by the next administration."

Anthony Blinken, Biden's nominee for Secretary of State, said much the same thing during his nomination confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

He said both confrontation and competition with China must be approached from "a position of strength, not a position of weakness." He asserted the U.S. has the means to confront China and these are "fully within our control." (Jan. 21, 2021)