The Red Dragon is dying

CHINA IS BEGINNING to self-destruct, and there’s nothing it can do to prevent this.

A report commissioned by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates China’s economic decline will become irreversible beginning 2020.

The Black Hole that will put paid to China's goal of becoming the next global hegemon is a little known demographic twist called the "Lewis Turning Point."

Vanishing manpower pool 
China’s 9.9% average annual GDP growth from 1979 to 2010 was fueled by a vast surplus army of rural workers numbering in the millions. This army became the factory workers paid some P3,000 a month who made the cheap products that allowed China to become the “Factory of the World.”

Two years from now or by 2015, China’s working age population will reach its highest level and then tumble into an irreversible decline.

By the 2030s, China’s working age population will shrink by 0.7% per year causing a labor shortage of 140 million workers within the decade. In contrast, China's working age population since the 1980s grew at the average annual rate of 2%.

More ominously, the growth rate of the core working group or those with ages from 20 to 39, the most productive segment, shrank to zero in 2010 and is projected to decline faster than the overall working age population through 2035.

Crossing the Lewis Point of no return
China this January confirmed this contraction had already begun. It admitted its working age population had indeed fallen—but far sooner than expected.

The IMF report said that based on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge in China between 2020 and 2025. The disintegration of Communist China will then become inexorable.

The Lewis Turning Point is the point at which an economy like China moves from a vast supply of low-cost workers to one with an acute labor shortage. The cost to China of this transition will be severe.

The Lewis Turning Point means China can no longer rely on cheap labor, copycat technology and export-led growth to keep growth going. It is also forcing foreign manufacturers to transfer operations to cheaper countries such as India and Vietnam whose minimum wages are currently some 40% lower than China’s.

As China’s agriculture surplus labor evaporates, “. . . industrial wages rise faster, industrial profits are squeezed, and investment falls. At that point, the economy is said to have crossed the Lewis Turning Point,” said the IMF in its report, “Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?”

All these will signal the end of the old economic model based on low-cost labor and massive exports that made China so successful.

The Lewis Turning Point is named after Nobel laureate Sir Arthur Lewis, an economist, who first broached the concept in “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor,” a paper written in 1954.

A report by a separate team of researchers said the concern “. . . raised by China's changing demographics is not the prospect of slower economic growth itself, but the potential for slower growth to trigger a social and political crisis.

“By the 2020s, demographic trends may weaken the two principal pillars of the PRC government's political legitimacy: rapidly rising living standards and social stability.”

And as it is run by an inert communist bureaucracy, China will be unable to transition to a private consumption economy from an investment-driven economy in time to blunt the effects of the Lewis Turning Point.

Adapt or die
The result of this failure will be intense economic pain the likes of which China has not experienced since the disastrous Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s when millions of Chinese died from starvation due to communist mismanagement.

For China, the Lewis Turning Point means that its extensive growth model will not be sustained. China is left with the options of accepting the consequences of this inevitable demographic danger, or denying it and curtailing individual freedoms to curb the social unrest that will most certainly follow.

There is little China can do to prevent the Lewis Turning Point. Ensuring this are the effects of China’s misguided “One-Child Policy” begun in 1979 that prevented some 400 million babies from being born, and China’s current low fertility rate of 1.8 lifetime births per woman (from 5.0 in the 1970s).

Besides losing its young work force, China’s population is also aging faster. The United Nations estimates the share of elderly Chinese (or those 65 and older) in the population will double from only 8% in 2010 to 16% by 2030 and will triple to 24% by 2050.

In the next 25 years, China will have an older population than the USA.

Still a developing nation
China’s rapid aging comes at an awkward moment in its history. Today's developed nations became affluent before they became aging societies. China, however, will achieve the opposite.

This means that China will not be able to fully implement the social protections such as social security, pensions and other safety nets for the elderly that are the norm in developed economies. Today, less than a third of China's workforce has formal retirement benefits.

For China’s elderly, the future is dire since the state and a smaller pool of younger workers will be unable to support them in their “Golden Years.”

The UN said China had 7.8 working age adults available to support each of its elderly in 2010. This ratio will fall to 3.8 by 2030 and to 2.4 by 2050.

This decline means the average burden borne by each worker will triple. As a consequence, many of China’s elderly will face death alone and without adequate social safety nets.

Too heavy a price
There is a price to pay for progress. In China’s case, that price has been obscured by its enviable economic growth over the past three decades.

Despite a per capita GDP double that of the Philippines, China remains a developing nation like the Philippines.

China’s goal of becoming a developed nation is in serious jeopardy—if not already an impossibility—because of the Lewis Turning Point and unfavorable demographics.

This turning point that will shatter its ambition of sustaining itself as the world’s largest economy, and could ignite a social upheaval that might destroy the communist state.

The last thing we remember on Earth . . .

(Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, 27 January 2014)

“WHAT HAPPENS after we close our eyes for the last time?”

For an atheist, the answer’s easy. We won’t ever open our eyes again.

There’s no After Life: no joyous reward for the good, no perpetual damnation for the evil. Heaven and hell are what we make out of this life. So live each day as if it were the last.

For zealous Christians, the answer’s easy, too. They’ll awake in Heaven and to a life of eternal bliss in the presence of Jesus Christ. And zealous Christians know Hell is the only destination for the damned.

For indifferent Christians, however, there doesn't seem to be a definite answer. There’s only the frantic hope that Heaven will be there when they re-awaken.

For religious non-Christians, the answer to this question probably depends on the intensity of their love for God as they perceive Him.

Working towards heaven or an eternal reward is a goal that gives meaning to the lives of many. That’s a good thing.

It’s only logical that good people seek a reward for lives well lived in an After Life of eternal joy.

But those who want heaven to be there when they re-open their eyes fear that one sin might deprive them of this just reward.

This concern need not turn into needless panic. The habit of goodness sears itself into one’s soul and unconsciously prepares one for the Final Second.

Your Final Thoughts are vital when your life flashes before your eyes and the Light begins to call you. If you've built a life of goodness, your Final Thoughts will reflect the person you really are.

And when your terrified eyes no longer see this world, your Final Thoughts will lead you towards your Destination.

The Last Thing we remember on earth will be the First Thing we see in Heaven.

At the Final Second, the memories of goodness done will flood our consciousness and serve as the key that unlocks the door to an eternal reward.

The good we've done will steel us into accepting Death as the rightful extension of this life. And the Door to our Eternal Reward.

Goodness is the key.

God will certainly reward the Fervent Few who remain true to His Book. But this fervor is improbable for the wretched legions whose lives are consumed by the terrible struggle against poverty.

What is left to us is the innate Goodness that is God’s mirror in every person.  So that even if physically and mentally ruined, a person can hold up this mirror of Goodness to see himself as God sees him: a Creation to be saved—always.

Business at satellite speed

(Published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on 7 January 2013)

THE PRIVATE SECTOR must now take the lead in restoring the Philippines’ presence in space.

The government is beset by a plate-full of economic, national security and other concerns that limit its ability to spearhead the lofting of a new Philippine satellite that will assist in the expansion of national services beyond our crowded metropolitan regions, and at the same time help sustain the high economic growth we are experiencing.

Growth at this level can be stymied without the critical infrastructure satellite communications can provide. By its immunity from terrestrial disasters such as typhoons, a satellite can enhance long-distance communications and expand wireless broadband Internet coverage across our entire archipelago. National security, disaster preparedness and distance learning are just a few of the many benefits a satellite orbiting serenely in space will support.

For business firms, a satellite enhances the point-to-multipoint communications that can boost sales and cut costs. It also expands broadband access to the Internet, which is undoubtedly the home page of 21^st century business. A satellite allows companies to have a national presence from the first day of service without the costly terrestrial infrastructure that accompanies cellular and cabled services.

A necessity

Current business, national security and national development issues make it essential that the Philippines have its own dedicated space communications satellite to replace Agila-2, formerly the country’s only satellite that now orbits the Earth over the Middle East as ABS-3.

In January 2009, Mabuhay Satellite Communications, Inc., (MSC) a subsidiary of Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, sold Agila-2 to the Bermuda-based firm, Asia Broadcast Satellite Holdings Ltd. (ABS), for some Php400 million, extinguishing the Philippines’ lone foothold in space.

The loss of our only Philippine satellite was a severe blow to the country’s technological independence. It means that we continue to depend on satellites of competitor states for strategic business and military telecommunications.

Even worse is to not do anything about the loss of our own satellite in a digital age where technology multiplies national strength. This inaction will only serve to hold future Filipinos hostage to the whims of other nations.

Left behind

The Philippines is the only country among the top five richest Southeast Asian states without its own communications satellite. That must change.

Indonesia has 9 satellites; Malaysia has 4; Singapore, 9 and Thailand, 5. Even Vietnam now has its own satellites. In May 2012, Vietnam orbited Vinasat 2, its second satellite.

The business and security issues facing the Philippines today present both greater opportunities and greater threats that can successfully be addressed by a satellite dedicated to the Philippines’ unique interests.

A business edge with satellites

At the business end, a Philippine satellite can help provide the massive bandwidth required by mobile devices such as smartphones, tablet computers and laptops for high-speed, broadband Internet-on-demand, anytime, anywhere.

Satellite Internet can deliver download speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second in contrast to the hundreds of kilobits per second in terrestrial technologies such as 3G.

“Satellites can help return the Philippines to where it was more than 40 years ago when it was at the head of Asia, using technology to facilitate nationwide economic development and security, and not at the back of Asia,” said Tom van der Heyden, an American national and a leading satellite communications expert.

He believes a satellite catering to the Philippine market will make money and that pent-up demand will drive growth. The reach of a single satellite is far more extensive than what any terrestrial network can achieve.

Van der Heyden said a medium-sized satellite should be able to find clients for its on-board transponders in about 3 to 4 years based on the rapid demand for Internet and other nationwide communication requirements.

“The demand is high and the market huge, and this can sustain a number of Philippine satellites,” believes van der Heyden, who has made the Philippines his second home for the last 10 years and is married to a Filipina.

Broadband Internet via satellite

One of the key engines that will fuel demand for satellite communications will be wireless broadband Internet access and video applications. Van der Heyden said the incredible growth of the Internet is killing cellular companies because they can’t distribute wireless broadband Internet fast enough and maintain acceptable quality.

Globally, the Internet relies on satellites for “backhaul” or the link between a core network such as a telecoms provider or a broadcast network to the small sub-networks that distribute content. The point-to-multipoint capability of a satellite makes backhaul via satellite cheaper and more reliable than terrestrial telecommunications.

“It (backhaul) doesn’t exist here,” van der Heyden pointed out.

“It’s like living in a desert. I received a quote for a business DSL recently. The highest 'guaranteed' rate they’re offering is about one megabit for P50,000 per month. Who can afford to grow a business paying that kind of monthly fee, not to mention it’s only available in limited areas!”

What exists here is an expensive but vulnerable network of terrestrial cellular and fixed broadband base stations that rely on fiber optic cables to distribute content throughout the archipelago. The result is very expensive Internet and slow download speeds.

The dearth of broadband capacity is also the reason for the popularity of WiMAX or the Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access. WiMAX is a technology that provides wireless broadband access to a wider area covering several kilometers.

WiMax is gaining traction because it’s an economical solution to the “last mile problem” that makes current Internet technologies such as 3G so expensive. Despite this, WiMax can only reach out to a few kilometers as against a satellite that can provide wireless broadband service to subscribers in an area hundreds of kilometers in size.

A satellite is ideal for bringing broadband to the last mile of residences and businesses, thereby lowering Internet costs. Satellite networks are also extremely predictable compared to terrestrial Internet Protocol networks that are a mix of different networks. This means satellite networks can deliver a constant and uniform quality of service to thousands of locations, irrespective of geography.

If Europe and North America continue to build and launch satellites focused on Internet service, then there should be no question of a satellite’s value to an archipelago that has limited terrestrial infrastructure to cover its 7,000 islands.

Consortium needed

When the Philippines started thinking satellites in the 1990s, the Department of Transportation and Communications spearheaded the formation of consortium of telecom companies that invested millions of pesos to launch Agila since a single company was unable to raise the US$300 to US$400 million needed to launch the satellite.

We need incentives of this sort today to enable a consortium to launch a new Philippine satellite. Van der Heyden suggested that the government could provide enough incentives and tax breaks to encourage investors in the satellite business. 

“It’s a win-win already benefiting over 50 countries around the world. There’s no reason why the formula should be anything but better for the Philippines,” said van der Heyden.

The government can also help by guaranteeing its own capacity requirements on the new satellite. This capacity can be used for secure government communications, especially those made by the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and by commercial, business, banking, remote education and disaster recovery efforts.

Van der Heyden believes a firm government commitment to lease transponders could generate enough funding to launch a minimum of one or likely two satellites.

And if the private Filipino consortium wants to cut costs further, it can opt not to build a new satellite but instead partner with foreign business firms to buy a small satellite.

This will allow the partners to split costs and do commercial deals. The aim is to generate a faster return on investment by leasing transponders faster while reserving capacity for Philippine government needs.

A satellite transponder is a device that receives a radio signal and automatically transmits a different signal, often without changing the content of the received signal. Communications satellites earn money through transponder leasing.

Former MSC President Garie Pimentel, who is now an ABS executive, said the Southeast Asian satellite market is very competitive. The rising number of countries in Asia orbiting their own national satellites has resulted in overcapacity.

He said the new trends lean towards “hosted payloads,” “condo-sats” and other joint ventures. It is not essential that a country own a satellite if it cannot afford one. 

National security needs

The pressing needs of national security demand the Philippines gain control over its international communications, especially military communications via satellite. Secure military communications are vital for effective national action in conflict or potential conflict areas such as the West Philippine Sea.

This country cannot and should never rely on Indonesia or Malaysia, and especially China, to handle or control its military communications for obvious national security reasons. Pimentel concedes the country needs its own satellite communications. 

“For its security needs, I agree that the AFP’s VSAT network cannot be hosted on a satellite controlled by a foreign power. One can easily imagine what would happen to this network should the country be in conflict with the country that controls this satellite.”

The primordial business need to seize competitive advantages is bound to drive Filipino businessmen, especially those involved in information and communications technology, to once again consider the profitable opportunities that accrue from operating their own commercial satellite.

Now is the time to do so.

Ad for the former Agila-2, which now serves Africa ad ABS-3

Editor’s Note: Art Villasanta and Peter Galace have been writing about satellites and the space industry for well over a decade. They co-authored an extensive research and market study about Philippine telecommunications for an international research firm. Galace also co-wrote the only book written by Filipinos about the history of the world’s commercial satellite industry.

Only memories and memorials will remain

RIZAL WAS RIGHT: a person has to recall the lessons of his past to forge a better future. Taking this adage to embrace the Filipino nation means Filipinos must cast a studied eye at past greatness to exceed that greatness in the future.

This country is a Great Nation. But it is a Nation that has forgotten the meaning of greatness because it refuses to recognize the greatness in its past.

For some Filipinos whose minds are warped by the archetypal image of the downtrodden Pinoy, these bold statements will be shocking. These Filipinos will be hard pressed to remember a time in our history when Filipinos were great.

What they will see are some four centuries of unrelieved Spanish tyranny; close to five decades of petty American “culture” and three years of inhuman Japanese brutality.

Where is the greatness in this litany of oppression?

Memories of Filipino greatness

The greatness lies in that the Filipino Nation defeated four centuries of imperial racism by these colonial empires.

The greatness lies in the Filipino Nation defeating the hated Spaniards in 1898. A local revolt in what is now Quezon City triggered in 1896 by an obscure warehouse helper named Andres Bonifacio grew so rapidly that it had reduced Spain’s hold on the Philippines to the single city of Intramuros by 1898.

Filipino revolutionaries, mostly unlettered farmers armed with bolos and bamboo spears and emboldened by an enduring hatred of the Spaniard, had inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Spanish Empire and had wrested control of Las Islas Filipinas from the unwelcome invader.

Independence would have been ours had not the Americans intervened in 1898. It became ours in 1946 but only after a vicious war against the barbaric Japanese that left some one million Filipinos dead by 1945, out of a population of only 17 million Filipinos.

Filipino guerillas, mostly unlettered farmers armed with bolos and bamboo spears like their Revolutionary fathers and emboldened by an intense hatred of the Japanese, had helped inflict one of the greatest military defeats in the history of the Empire of Japan.

Of the 380,000 Japanese invaders in the Philippines in October 1944, only 40,000 remained alive when the Imperial Japanese Army surrendered to Filipinos in Kiangan, Ifugao on September 2, 1945. The Philippines was the largest grave of Japanese soldiers in Southeast Asia during World War 2.

What is not well known even until today is how effective the Filipino was in the guerilla war against the Japanese. When the Americans returned to the Philippines at Leyte in October 1944, Filipino guerillas controlled 36 of the Philippines’ 48 provinces.

This almost complete Filipino domination of the countryside meant that fighting was limited to pockets of Japanese resistance, mostly in the larger cities in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Some of these pockets such as those in north Luzon proved difficult to crush, but the task of exterminating the Japanese would have been much harder for the Filipino-American allies had the Japanese held the countryside.

The Japanese did not, and this disadvantage proved fatal to them in the long-run since they were unable to deploy soldiers, equipment and supplies freely to where they were needed. Filipino guerillas blockaded roads, destroyed bridges and attacked Japanese convoys almost at will. American airpower constricted Japanese movements even more.

The great Battle of Bessang Pass in Ilocos Norte from February to June 1945—the greatest victory by Filipinos over the Japanese—was an all-Filipino battle that proved the martial superiority of Filipinos over the Japanese in the attack.

By defeating the entrenched Japanese who held positions in hills and ridges some 1,500 meters high, the Filipino guerillas of the United States Army Forces in the Philippines-Northern Luzon (USAFIP-NL) put to a victorious end to the most vicious close quarter battle of the Liberation, and finally surrounded the remnants of the Imperial Japanese Army in north Luzon in a ring of steel from which they were unable to escape.

Memorials to Filipino greatness

But it was the great defensive struggle for Bataan and Corregidor from January to May 1942 that most vividly illustrates the innate greatness of the Filipino.

Unprepared, ill-equipped and mostly untrained, the Filipinos of the Commonwealth Army fatally disrupted Japan’s timetable for conquest by their superhuman endurance and bravery. Our resistance against mammoth odds set the stage for an unbroken string of Japanese defeats that began at the Battle of Midway a month after the surrender of Corregidor, and ended with the annihilation of the Imperial Japanese Army in the Philippines in September 1945.

With our blood and suffering, we had bought time for the Americans to counterattack, and for Freedom to win in the end.

All this, most Filipinos of today remain contentedly unaware.

If you do want to be inspired by tangible monuments to our past heroism, go on a pilgrimage to Bataan and Corregidor, the Holy Shrines to Filipino Heroism.

But before you embark on the guided tour of these Sacred Grounds, first immerse yourself in their history. Read about our resistance in the Second World War so you will see beyond the immediate images of shattered buildings, massive mortars and battlegrounds long since overgrown with new grass.

Your mindset must be that of a religious pilgrim, not that of a tourist. A religious pilgrim sees the significance behind the symbols; a tourist sees symbols merely as backgrounds for his photographs.

Your tour guide will go on and on about battlegrounds that have since become tourist spots. He will crack jokes and in the main resemble something of an entertainer.

Forget his facetiousness, and remember the ground on which you tread has been sanctified by the blood of our grandfathers and fathers.  Tread lightly and with reverence.

This sacredness is more palpable on Corregidor. I visited “The Rock” on April 7 as part of a group that took part in the “Araw ng Kagitingan” (Day of Valor) commemoration. This group consisted of a few World War 2 veterans and a horde of young people who traveled to the island on board the BRP Pampanga, a search and rescue vessel of the Philippine Coast Guard.

The trip was arranged by the Philippine Veterans Affairs Office (PVAO), the government agency that looks after the welfare of Filipino veterans of all our wars and internal conflicts.

Corregidor had changed substantially since I last visited in the 1970s. It’s very tourist friendly, meaning that the wants and needs of tourists are adequately met by the island’s infrastructure and people.

Corregidor has been wonderfully preserved. The sheer commercialism of the tourist trade on which Corregidor thrives seems an affront to this Holy Shrine, but tourism seems the only way to make Filipinos realize the exceptional valor that ruled this island 60 years ago.

The massive mortars and guns of the Corregidor batteries remain the “star” of these guided tours. And, at every battery, tour guides give you ample time for “picture-picture.”

The guns have been painted a warm green. In contrast, they were unpainted when I first saw them decades ago. I must admit the dull and menacing color of naked steel was more impressive than the friendly green that coats these guns today.

At “Topside,” however, is the most imposing monument to Filipino gallantry on Corregidor. Here stands the “Filipino Heroes Memorial,” a shrine studded with statues and symbols honoring the Filipino soldier, guerilla and the Filipino Nation In Arms during World War 2.

 The most imposing, and the largest statue, is that honoring the Filipino guerilla. It depicts a muscular and bare chested Filipino farmer shouldering an Enfield rifle.

Wrapped around his left shoulder is the rope used to tie his carabao and resting against his right leg is the “araro” or plow used to till his field. A sheathed bolo hangs from a rope tied around his waist.

Behind him stands the tallest flagpole on the island from which flutters a huge National Flag.

It is an image both familiar and frightening. It is as if this gentle soul was forced into the brutal task of fighting so he could once again revert to his former and gentler self.

The many monuments on this island proclaim loudly about Filipino heroism and greatness. It will be impossible not to be awed by the magnificent symbolism.

On the sun-baked province of Bataan, however, the symbols to Filipino heroism are fewer and not at myriad as those on Corregidor. But they are much larger, and none is larger than the 92 meter tall Dambana ng Kagitingan Memorial Cross (Shrine of Valor Memorial Cross) at the peak of historic Mt. Samat.

The absence of massive guns and shattered buildings endows the Mt. Samat memorial shrine complex with a serenity that makes it difficult to comprehend the terror faced by Filipinos who stubbornly defended this ground against a better equipped enemy.

Here, on this hallowed ground 60 years ago, Filipinos fought the final actions in the doomed Battle for Bataan. They had held out months longer than the enemy anticipated, and had at one point come close to decisively defeating the Japanese in Bataan.

Here, Filipinos were shot, blasted, bayoneted and burned to death. Surrender did not halt their suffering. The murderous Bataan Death March saw the Japanese murder 10,000 surrendered Filipino fighting men along the 128 kilometer route from Bataan to Capas, Tarlac.

Try as one might, it proves difficult imagining that these horrific events took place here among the well-manicured gardens and lush greenery. Nature’s healing beauty has paved over the unspeakable horror this mountain witnessed six decades ago.

China’s Blood Red October

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Sun Tzu
 

THIS APHORISM from China’s most famous military intellectual is the essence of the strategy China now uses against the Philippines and her allies in the standoff at the West Philippine Sea.

Sun Tzu

In statecraft, the strategy described by this aphorism goes by the name, “coercive diplomacy.” Coercive diplomacy and bullying share a similar method: the use of threats to impose one’s will on an opponent.  In coercive diplomacy, the threat of force, and not force itself, is used to bring an opposing nation to heel.

In the military realm, this course of action is called the “Strategy of the Indirect Approach.” Championed by the British military thinker, Sir Basil Liddell Hart, this method has the aim of defeating the enemy without fighting. Unusual as it might sound, the indirect approach of winning without fighting is considered by both Sun Tzu and Liddell Hart as the “supreme art of war” or the perfection of generalship.

Liddell Hart

For Liddell Hart, the true aim of a strategist “. . . is not so much to seek battle as to seek a strategic situation so advantageous that if it does not of itself produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is bound to achieve this. In other words, dislocation is the aim of strategy . . . .”

And what does the similar conclusion drawn by these thinkers have to do with the Philippines and its problem with China in the West Philippine Sea?

It sheds light on what China is doing and what she hopes to achieve. Coercive diplomacy and the indirect approach are two sides of the same strategic coin. When used effectively, either of the two weapons can advance a state’s national interests without resorting to fighting.

China will not war

It is worthwhile for the Philippines to remember that China, at this decisive point in her history, neither desires nor is prepared to go to war over the West Philippine Sea despite its enormous importance to her future.

China is now a victim of simultaneous and momentous political and economic events that will prevent her from resorting to force to attain her national interests in the West Philippine Sea, including the Panatag Shoal. These historic events will serve to limit China’s options to making ugly faces and horrifying noises at the Philippines, Vietnam and their three other allies for the remainder of this year until well into 2013.

The first of these events is the changeover of the top leadership in China that will occur in October. The other is the certainty that China’s third quarter Gross Domestic Product results (to be released also in October) will reveal that its economy has weakened further, and that the dreaded “hard landing” of 7.5% growth has become a reality.

When coupled with angry social unrest at the vast and widening income gap between the few communist rich and the rest of the population, and the crumbling banking sector that sustains its military machine, these events could set the stage for the extinction of communism’s hold on China this decade.

Looking inwards

China’s sudden declaration this September that “the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea is assured” is an admission she will first focus on resolving her dangerous internal problems before turning her attention to international affairs.

It has nothing to do with China suddenly becoming a kinder and gentler dictatorship or with relinquishing her claim to the West Philippine Sea. China is simply buying time so she can deal with these extremely dangerous local issues.

In October, President Hu Jintao will step down in favor of Xi Jinping while Premier Wen Xiabao will relinquish his post to Li Keqiang at the 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing. These new leaders will formally take over in March 2013 at the National People's Congress.

It will be in China’s best interests if its new leaders first portrayed themselves as peace loving champions and not remind the rest of the world of their predecessors’ troublemaking in the West Philippine Sea. It is a policy the new leaders might place on the backburner at the start of their terms in office.

There is every chance that the tensions of the past year provoked by China will subside, for some time at least, as these new leaders make their presence felt. It will be to the advantage of the Philippines and her allies if China’s attention were diverted away from the West Philippine Sea for as long as possible.

China’s mounting economic woes should keep its new leadership occupied with the flagging economy rather than pursuing its coercive diplomacy in the West Philippine Sea. A pause in China’s coercive diplomacy will grant the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei precious time to consider the wisdom of formal collective action against China.

A respite of a year or more from China’s relentless coercive diplomacy will see the Philippines and Vietnam better armed than they were at the start of this standoff. They and their three other allies will be better able to thwart China’s indirect approach military strategy should this confrontation be pushed by China to the brink of war.

Defeating China

If China prevails in her coercive diplomacy, she will also have succeeded in her indirect approach to the military aspect of this equation. She will have succeeded in dislocating her foes and fulfilled Liddell Hart’s aim of achieving a strategic situation “. . . so advantageous that if it does not of itself produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is bound to achieve this.”

China’s indirect approach is simple: keep the five claimants divided. Isolated, each claimant becomes more vulnerable to China’s coercive diplomacy and still more vulnerable to economic and political pressure.

Thus will China succeed in defeating “. . . the enemy without fighting.” It will be a triumphant application of Sun Tzu.

The solution to this indirect approach is equally simple: a military alliance. For the five allies, it is clearly a choice between defeat in detail or victory in unity. Stated in these terms, the allies are left with but one reasonable option.

It is in the best interests of the Philippines and her allies that China’s political situation turns for the worse after the transfer of political leadership this October, and that China’s economy collapses faster than expected. Ironically, these events (should they occur) could begin in October, the month that saw the birth of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

Communism might not live to see its 70^th anniversary in China. This is the greatest disaster that will befall communism in China should events in the West Philippine Sea spiral out of communist control.

By standing fast and standing together, the Philippines and her four allies can be part of this great historical event in the making. It will be a Blood Red October for China.

Filipino soldiers on Kalayaan Island

The Iron Fist

THERE IS NOW a dire need for the Philippines to take the lead in building a military alliance with Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Extremely alarming events in the past two months triggered by Communist China are serving to convince our Allies that they, too, are actual and not potential victims of Communist China's relentless diplomatic aggressiveness in the West Philippine Sea.

The governments of our four Allies should realize an alliance remains the only viable option for deterring Communist China from pursuing its "New Imperialism" that will reduce them to the status of witless vassals if left unchecked.

Fresh in their minds is the humiliating example of servile Cambodia, ever the subservient Igor to Communist China's Dr. Frankenstein.

There is sound logic for using the powerful diplomatic tool of alliance building. Alone, none of the five Allied nations has the power to bend Communist China to its will.

Collectively, however, the Power of the Five will be enough to deter further Communist Chinese expansionism in the West Philippine Sea.

One can compare the Five to the fingers in a hand. Singly, each finger is vulnerable to pressure, however slight. But acting together when clenched, the Five Fingers become an Iron Fist with the power to inflict pain on any foe.

And the Iron Fist can now turn to Japan and India for support because of Communist China’s aptitude for making enemies right and left. This support is tantamount to arming the Iron Fist with a massive battleaxe.

Seapower: The future Philippine Navy

The naval balance
The power of the Iron Fist lies in the combined naval power it can bring to bear against the Communist Chinese. In numbers, both sides are almost evenly matched.

Together, the Allies can currently muster some 50 surface combatants (destroyers, frigates and corvettes) and eight submarines. It will be far stronger by 2020.

Their antagonist in any sea conflict will be the South Sea Fleet of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This fleet of some 30 destroyers and frigates and eight diesel-electric submarines is based in the city of Zhanjiang in Guangdong province.

This fleet will be reinforced by the more powerful East Sea Fleet (whose mission is to invade Taiwan) should fighting erupt. But the presence of the ROC Navy should serve to deter any massive redeployment of its ships to assist the South Sea Fleet.

The PLAN has an edge in fighting power and a homogeneous command structure. Together, what the Allies have is a credible naval deterrent that inflict far more damage on the PLAN than any single Allied nation can.

A bully won’t be as warlike if he knows the nerds facing him can also beat him up, as well. It is this fear that will restrain the bully from further provocations. And any hesitation by Communist China to further its aim of transforming the West Philippine Sea into a Communist Chinese Lake is already a victory for the Allies.

But this will only be brought about by the existence of the Iron Fist.

Allied naval power
In 2011, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam took delivery of her second “Gepard 3.9 Class” frigate. Vietnam’s two operational Gepard (Russian for “cheetah”) frigates are now among the most advanced surface combatants among the Allies apart from Taiwan's U.S. made destroyers and "La Fayette" stealth frigates. Vietnam has two more Gepards on order.

The Gepard’s firepower is massive: eight sea-skimming “Switchblade” anti-ship missiles, each with a range of 130 km; a surface-to-air missile system; two 6-barreled 30 mm autocannon; torpedoes; an anti-submarine rocket launcher and a 76.2 mm dual purpose main gun.

Vietnam is awaiting delivery of six improved “Kilo Class” submarines (six torpedo tubes, 6,000 mile range). It currently operates 23 Sukhoi “Su-30MK2” Flanker-C naval fighter-bombers (anti-ship missiles, 5,000 mile range) and is buying more of these anti-ship attack aircraft.

These weapons systems, all made in Russia, bring Vietnam closer to the point where she can successfully challenge China--her primary strategic foe--if push comes to shove in the West Philippine Sea. And Vietnam has a score to settle with Communist China.

Vietnam suffered a naval defeat off our Kalayaan Archipelago during the "Spratly Islands Naval Battle of 1988." In that battle, three missile-armed Chinese frigates attacked three almost defenseless Vietnamese troop transport ships defended by three lightly armed patrol boats, sinking all the transports and killing 60 Vietnamese. The Chinese lost six men but no ships.

Malaysia and Taiwan also realize the immense value of submarines and modern warships in defending their national interests in the West Philippine Sea.

Malaysia three years ago took delivery of two Scorpène submarines built by France. These advanced subs are armed with “Blackshark” wire-guided torpedoes and “Exocet SM-39” sub-launched anti-ship missiles.

Taiwan operates four submarines, 22 modern frigates and four destroyers. In addition, the ROC Navy is building 30 “Kuang Hua VI Class” missile boats capable of patrolling the West Philippine Sea. Brunei's navy consists of missile armed corvettes and fast patrol boats.

The Philippines 
And what of the Philippines and her Philippine Navy?

The Navy is becoming stronger because of a stronger focus on national defense by Pres. Aquino. A second Hamilton-class frigate will join its sister-ship, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, next year as will another frigate. The new Hamilton is expected to be armed with missiles and a close-in weapons system for use against aircraft.

The most heartening news, however, is that the Philippines will acquire two Italian frigates armed with ship-to-ship missiles and surface-to-air missiles. These will be the first modern fighting warships in the Navy.

More firepower for the Philippine Navy: A Maestrale-class frigate.

Despite its paucity in naval fighting power, the Philippines has an ace-in-the-hole: the mighty United States Navy. The coming redeployment of 60% of the U.S. Navy's fighting power to the Pacific will also give China pause.

Communist China, however, has shown a stubborn streak in its push for hegemony in the West Philippine Sea. And there is abundant reason to doubt Communist China’s sincerity when she states diplomacy is her preferred tool in solving the Spratlys’ impasse. Her recent and relentless aggressive actions belie this claim again and again.

Only the Iron Fist will suffice to keep Communist China in check. And the Allies can learn from recent history the folly of appeasing aggressive states such as Communist China.

The Philippines and her Allies cannot cede a single centimeter of territory in the West Philippine Sea to the Communist Chinese. To do so would ignite a chain of disastrous events that will lead to a war.

In the infamous Munich Agreement of 1938, the Western Allies surrendered the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany in the hope of preventing Adolf Hitler from plunging Europe into war. This act of appeasement failed and World War II was not averted.

History must not repeat itself at our expense.

Original of the version published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on 9 August 2012.

Valor and heroism: Filipino soldiers' stories from the Korean War

(Published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 8, 2012)

THERE WAS A GREAT NATION in the 1950s that thought nothing of assisting an oppressed people whose country had been reduced to dire poverty by its brutal colonial occupier.

This great nation did whatever it could to assist this foreign race: it put forward a proposal at the United Nations that led to the general elections that created the new country called the Republic of Korea on 15 August 1948.

It was the first Asian country to open diplomatic relations with the Republic of Korea.

It continued to provide South Korea with food and financial assistance to help ensure South Korea’s survival in the turbulent years following the birth of that state.

And, in an astonishing act of humanity and selflessness, this great nation sent its soldiers to defend South Korea against a massive communist invasion despite its having to contend with a communist rebellion of its own, and the painful challenge of rebuilding an economy crippled by the Second World War.

It was the first Asian country to send combat troops to the Korean War that began on 25 June 1950. Its soldiers protected South Korea until 1955.

All this the great country called the Philippines did for its protégé, the Republic of Korea.

These monumental achievements are badges of great national pride for all Filipinos.

Sixty one years ago, the first Filipino warrior set foot on Korea at the port city of Busan on 19 September 1950. The 10th Battalion Combat Team (BCT) was the first of five BCTs that would serve in Korea until June 1955 under the flag of the elite Philippine Expeditionary Force to Korea or PEFTOK.

Quiapo, Manila from Quiapo Bridge in the 1950s

An extensive account of the Philippines’ role in the Korean War is on the Internet at www.peftok.blogspot.com.

Over 7,400 officers and men of the Philippine Army served in Korea. Five of these warriors—all in their 80s—recently returned to Korea for the first time since the Korean War. The Korean government sponsored their visit as part of the “Revisit Korea Program” for Filipino Korean War veterans and their families.

These veterans were accompanied by 15 other Filipinos, who were either their children or grandchildren. Their host was South Korea’s Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs.

These veterans were all astounded at the massive progress Korea had made over the past six decades, and rued the Philippines’ paucity of progress in that same time. One veteran noted that our present economic situation is the reverse of what it had been in the 1950s.

The Philippines then was Southeast Asia’s leading economic and military power and Asia’s second largest economy after Japan. From being one of the world’s poorest nations in the 1950s, South Korea is now one of the world’s 30 richest in per capita gross domestic product.

A most dangerous man
“I can’t believe how fast South Korea has improved since the Korean War,” said Jesus Dizon, who at 86 is the oldest Korean War veteran among the Revisitors. “It’s a tribute to the Korean people.”

His unit was the 20th BCT, the second Filipino BCT deployed to Korea. Dizon was a Forward Observer or FO, the most dangerous of Allied soldiers, whose job was to identify targets for the six 105mm howitzers of the battalion’s field artillery battery.

105mm howitzers of the 20th BCT open fire.

FOs got their deadly job done with a field telephone; a pair of powerful binoculars, maps—and a great deal of courage. They normally occupied well-hidden positions on hilltops or other dominating terrain near the enemy and spent days searching for enemy activity. The power of life or death held by an FO was terrifying.

In North Korea one morning, a large number of communist Chinese soldiers suddenly appeared below a ridgeline Dizon had been observing for some time. Dizon located the enemy unit on the grid map spread before him.

He calmly picked up his field telephone and called-in the target coordinates to the fire direction center of the battalion’s artillery battery emplaced a few kilometers behind him.

“Fire!” he ordered.

A single high-explosive 105mm round exploded away from the Chinese unit. Dizon noted the fall of the ranging round through his binoculars. He reported the adjusted range over the phone and commanded the entire battery to open fire.

Six 105mm howitzers manned by Filipinos unleashed shell after shell into the Chinese. Dizon saw the bewildered Chinese engulfed by horrifying explosions as murderous blasts tore apart their unit.

The inferno was over in about a minute. A dirty pall of dust and smoke from the barrage lingering over the tragedy served as the gravestone for dozens of dead Chinese.

Dizon put down his field telephone and stared at his handiwork.

Wounded-in-action
“All of this was flat,” exclaimed Luminoso Cruz when referring to the thriving and crowded city of Suwon, 30 kilometers south of Seoul. “It was flat and gray. This city was totally destroyed.”

Suwon was where Cruz’s unit, the 10th BCT, spent its first Christmas in Korea. That was in 1950 and the 10th was the first of the five BCTs that served in Korea.

Cruz, a member of Recon Company, was the gunner of an M24 Chaffee light tank armed with a 75mm cannon. He took a shrapnel wound to the head along the banks of the Imjin River and was visibly moved as our bus crossed the river north during our visit to the Demilitarized Zone.

“This was where I was wounded,” he said, pointing to the bank of the Imjin, while suppressing his tears.

He fought in a two-man foxhole at the great Battle of Yuldong, which he recalled as a night of incredible terror.

“The Chinese attacked us in waves all night. My buddy and I just kept firing and firing our rifles,” he recalled of this gory battle, which was fought on 23 April 1951.

He doesn’t know how they survived the murderous hell of Yuldong. But his buddy had to be sent home afterwards. His nerves had given way under the terror of too much savage combat.

They called it “shell shock” then. We call it “post-traumatic stress disorder” or PTSD today.

The Battle of Yuldong was the greatest Filipino victory in the Korean War. A mere 900 Filipino fighting men withstood the night attack of an entire communist Chinese army that numbered 40,000 men at peak strength.

In standing their ground at Yuldong, the Filipinos fatally slowed-down the largest Chinese offensive of the war, and probably helped prevent the destruction of the United Nations forces and the communist conquest of South Korea.

The 10th BCT fends-off the communist Chinese 12th Army at the Battle of Yuldong.

One man's handiwork
Amiable and talkative, Florendo Benedicto served in both the 10th BCT and the 20th BCT. He decided to “re-up” or re-enlist in the 20th BCT because he loved combat.

Benedicto stands almost six feet tall and in the Army at the time, tall men generally wound-up becoming gunners in the belief they could carry heavier loads.

Benedicto’s weapon was the M1919 Browning .30 caliber medium machine gun that could fire up to 600 rounds a minute. The gun itself weighed 14 kilograms and it was Benedicto’s job to lug the gun onto the battlefield and fire it at the communist enemy. He did this on many occasions in two years of fighting.

Browning .30 cal.machine gun crew await the Chinese.

Today, however, Benedicto has rediscovered Jesus Christ. He spoke fondly of his Christianity, and quoted Bible verses during some of our conversations.

He believes that South Korea’s enviable economic blessings are due mostly to the strong unity pervading South Koreans.

“Their national unity is worth emulating,” he said. “Filipinos should learn from the South Koreans.”

And how can Filipinos achieve the great economic success of South Koreans?

“We have to establish love in the heart of every Filipino,” he answered. “We must love one another.”

It is a startling transformation for this formerly fierce warrior. It is all the more surprising if one knows what he did in the Korean War.

“I know I killed about 200 Chinese,” he said calmly when we talked about this. “I probably killed 300 more.”

Is he certain he killed 200 Chinese?

“I counted their dead bodies,” he replied.

Benedicto’s feat is all the more astounding since only 112 Filipino soldiers died in three years of combat in the Korean War despite almost constant fighting.

Happy birthday, Korea
Constancio Sanchez turned 24 on the historic day the 10th BCT arrived by ship at Busan on 19 September 1950, less than four months after the start of the Korean War on 25 June.

Knowing this, his officers allowed Sanchez to become one of the first Filipino fighting men to set foot on Korean soil. His mates then treated him to a merienda at one of the restaurants in the port city then being besieged by the communist North Korean People’s Army.

Sanchez served in the Headquarters & Headquarters & Service Company, the command group of the 10th BCT. The battalion was founded and first commanded by Col. Mariano Azurin. Col. Dionisio Ojeda replaced Azurin in the spring of 1951.

Of all the dangers he faced in the war, Sanchez remains awed by that phenomenon alien to Filipino experience called winter. It was December 1950 and the battalion was in Pyongyang when the communist Chinese intervened, and hurled the United Nations Command (including the 10th BCT) out of North Korea.

The winter of 1950-1951 was Korea’s coldest in two centuries but this did nothing to dispel the savage fighting that actually intensified with the Chinese intervention.

“We were shocked when the Chinese came and advanced so quickly,” he said. “We had to withdraw rapidly to avoid encirclement and it was terribly cold.”

Filipino warriors march amid snow covered fields.

Things would have been far worse for the battalion if the Chinese had attacked earlier, Sanchez believes. The onset of winter a month earlier immobilized most of their motor vehicles.

The intense sub-zero cold froze the water in engines and shattered engine blocks. This paralyzed most of the battalion’s vehicles, including those in the transport-heavy HQ&HQ Company.

Adding antifreeze to the water solved the problem, however, so that when the Chinese came, the battalion’s trucks, jeeps and armored vehicles kept running despite the intense cold.

“We probably wouldn’t have escaped from Pyongyang if we had to march on foot through the snow.”

Friends and God
Prudencio Medrano served in the HQ&HQ & Service Company of the 19th BCT, the third PEFTOK unit deployed to Korea, and re-upped for another year with the 14th BCT. And this was because of his friends.

“I re-enlisted because we were ‘buddy-buddy,’” he said. “Five of my buddies in the 19th BCT decided to extend. They asked me if I wanted to extend and I did because they were my buddies.”

In both BCTs, Medrano served as a radio operator of their battalion commanders: Col. Ramon Aguirre of the 19th and Col. Nicanor Jimenez of the 14th.

With the 19th, Medrano recalls he was often in the advanced command post with Col. Aguirre. His job was to transmit and receive voice messages and telegraph messages via Morse Code. Lives depended on the accuracy of his messages.

PEFTOK radiomen at headquarters.

Medrano rediscovered God amid the horror of the Korean War. The long spells between action and boredom along the static front line gave him time to reflect on things spiritual.

His search for meaning led him to what he called his greatest accomplishment during the war: joining the Iglesia ni Cristo in 1955.

* This is the original of the story published on Page 1 of the 8 July 2012 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.