(Published in ENRICH magazine, 2021)
"LUCIFER HEATWAVE." It’s the hellish name for a heat dome where
searing temperatures in excess of 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit)
linger on land and torment people for days on end.
The catastrophic outcomes of a Lucifer heatwave include record-breaking
temperature highs that can cause heat-related illnesses and deaths, and trigger
horrific forest fires. Ten countries in southern and eastern Europe, as well as
four states in the western United States (Arizona, California, Colorado and
Utah) are still reeling from the mind-numbing heat and wildfire damage
inflicted by Lucifer heatwaves from June to September this year.
A recently published study asserts Lucifer heatwaves will become normal in
southern Europe by 2050 if no effective action against global warming is taken.
"It is unbearable," said one resident of Seville, Spain about the
terrific heatwave. "We are used to it in Andalusia but this is reaching a
horrendous point. We don't manage to get any rest at night or during the
day."
This Spaniard had good reason to gripe. The State Meteorological Agency,
Spain’s national weather service, on July 31 warned people about high
temperatures reaching 44°C (111.2°F) in 31 of the country’s 50 provinces. Less
than two weeks later, or on August 11, Lucifer produced the hottest temperature
ever recorded in Europe -- an astounding 48.8°C -- measured in Sicily, Italy.
The severity of this peak can be appreciated by comparing it to the hottest
global temperature recorded this year. On July 9, the temperature at Death
Valley National Park's Furnace Creek Visitor Center in California hit an
incredible 54.4°C (130.0°F). Lucifer might also have had a hand in bringing
about this record-breaking result.
Europeans coined the phrase "Lucifer heatwave" to describe the
sizzling 2017 summer heatwaves in Western Europe and the Mediterranean region.
The first-named Lucifer struck in early August in southeastern Europe. This
extreme heat assault lasted three days and broke numerous records, including
several all time high temperatures.
Both Europe and the U.S. have been savaged by Lucifer heatwaves and will
suffer again as global warming continues mostly unchecked due to a combination
of human apathy and inaction.
For Filipinos, the question is, "Will there be Lucifer heatwaves in
our future?"
The short answer is, "Yes."
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| The last nine years were the warmest on record globally |
It's getting a lot hotter in the Philippines
Filipinos are used to hot weather due to the pervasive relative humidity
and heat in our country. No Filipino this year, however, has experienced the
agony of a heatwave hitting and exceeding a dry-bulb temperature (which doesn't
include relative humidity) of 40°C.
The hottest daily temperature in the Philippines in 2021 was a blistering
37.8°C and it occurred at Tuguegarao City, capital of Cagayan, on May 14, said
the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). The relative humidity in Tuguegarao came to 37% that
day, thereby producing a heat index of 42°C.
On the other hand, our hottest day as measured by the heat index was also
May 14, when a reading of 53°C was recorded at Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
Dagupan's dry air temperature was 37.4°C but its relative humidity was far
higher at 61%. May is traditionally the Philippines' hottest month with April
the second hottest. Our dry season extends from March to May.
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| Hottest day in the Philippines in 2021 |
Average annual temperatures in the Philippines normally range from 21°C to 32°C. The average yearly temperature is about 26.6°C.
Historical temperature data seem to confirm a much hotter Philippines. The
country's average mean annual temperature in 1901 stood at a cool 25.4°C
(77.7°F). This tolerable level increased only slightly over the next 100 years
to 26.3°C (79.3°F) at the end of the 20th century, according to a study from
the World Bank.
In 2020, however, the country's average mean annual temperature jumped to
27.1°C (80.8°F). An increase of 0.8°C in only 20 years might not sound dire but
the United Nations has warned even half a degree (0.5°C) rise stands to expose
tens of millions more people worldwide to life-threatening heatwaves, more
drinking water shortages and increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise.
Inevitable heatwaves
The new heat danger now facing Filipinos is not atmospheric heat per se but
heatwaves such as Lucifer. Heatwaves are dangerous and lethal because hot
weather and high humidity, both of which exist hand-in-hand in the Philippines,
boost body temperatures and open the door to life threatening conditions for
the unwary.
Our bodies can only work and effectively function if our core body
temperatures remain in the healthy region of 36.8°C. Heatwaves disrupt this
ideal state and can lead to unwanted afflictions such as heat stroke, heat
exhaustion, dehydration and death from excessive water loss. These ills are
especially dangerous for the elderly and infants that have problems maintaining
ideal body temperatures.
A heatwave is a period of unnaturally hot weather typically lasting two or
more days. To be considered a heatwave, temperatures have to be higher than the
historical average for a given area. Thresholds vary from area to area but are
typically around 29°C to 32°C.
PAGASA, however, defines a heatwave as an extreme heat event lasting at
least five straight days. Its definition follows that of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), which defines a heatwave as five or more
consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the
average maximum temperature by 5°C (9°F) or more. PAGASA's definition means
Filipinos will have to endure the unimaginable for five days before the agency
declares a heatwave emergency.
Should PAGASA wait that long since the Philippines, "will face more
than 300 potentially lethal heatwave days each year under the business-as-usual
emissions trajectory known as RCP 8.5," according to a published report
from Prof. Rolando Talampas, Officer-in-Charge of the Asian Center, University
of the Philippines Diliman.
RCP 8.5 refers to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
that delivers global warming at an average of 8.5 watts per square meter across
the Earth. Unchecked, RCP 8.5 can trigger a temperature increase of about 4.3˚C
above pre-industrial temperatures by the year 2100 . It's a worst case scenario
for climate change.
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| Drought in the Philippines caused by El Nino |
Heat mortality
Another study, this one a "heat health risk" assessment of
Philippine cities by Prof. Ronald Estoque, PhD, and his Japanese colleagues,
found the 16 cities comprising Metro Manila are at high, or very high risk,
from heatwaves. It focused on the phenomenon called the "urban heat
island,” which is basically a heat dome enclosing a city, in 139 Philippine
cities seen as having very high heat hazard index values.
The study revealed heat health risk is already a key risk in the Philippines.
Therefore, it argues adaptation to heat-related health impacts should be one of
the main priorities of government, The report also dwelt on the minimum
temperature thresholds that place people at heat health risk. It "found a
minimum mortality temperature (MMT) threshold of 38.3°C for daytime and 24.3°C
for nighttime."
Getting worse
Another troubling study says the already painful summer heat is only going
to worsen in the years ahead. This study published in the peer-reviewed
journal, Nature Climate Change, estimates some 74% of the world’s population
will be hit by deadly future heatwaves.
Even more distressing is the finding that nearly half of the world will
still be assailed by heatwaves even if emissions from greenhouse gases such as
CO2 are reduced. Some 30% of the world is in danger due to global warming
conditions.
"We are running out of choices for the future," said study lead
author Camilo Mora, associate professor of Geography in the College of Social
Sciences at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
"For heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible. Many
people around the world are already paying the ultimate price of heatwaves, and
while models suggest that this is likely to continue, it could be much worse if
emissions are not considerably reduced."
The online tool, ThinkHazard!, contends there's a more than 25% chance of
at least one period of prolonged exposure to a heatwave in the Philippines over
the next five years. It also classifies the extreme heat hazard in the
Philippines as "medium" based on modeled heat information.
World on fire
It goes without saying the Philippines is getting painfully hotter. We feel
it every year and the data bears out our worst fears. The coming heatwaves mean
Filipinos are going to have to find better ways to protect their health and
those of their loved ones.
The Philippines' hotter climate also reflects the global effects of climate
change, which keeps producing the hottest years since global records began
being kept by scientists in 1880.
In July 2016, NASA (the National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
announced the five hottest months globally up to that time were recorded in
July 2016, July 2011, July 2015, July 2009 and August 2014.
July 2016 was then the hottest month ever in recorded history while the
first six months of 2016 were the hottest in history. It was 0.84°C warmer than
the global average temperature from 1950 to 1980.
These records were bested this year. In August 2021, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said July 2021 displaced July 2016 as the
world’s hottest month on record.
Globally, the combined land and ocean-surface temperature in July was
0.93°C above the 20th century average of 15.8°C. This made July 2021 the
hottest July since records began. July's temperature was also 0.01 of a degree
Centigrade higher than the previous record set in July 2016, whose record was
tied in 2019 and 2020.
Asia also posted its hottest July on record, thereby eclipsing the previous
record set in 2010. Europe had its second-hottest July on record in 2021.
“July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2021
outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded," said NOAA
Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad PhD. "This new record adds to the disturbing
and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”
July is the Philippines' fourth warmest month, however. The average mean
temperature this July came to 27.7°C with daytime temperatures hitting a
sweltering 31.4°C.
Historically, July has a mean average temperature of 27.5°C and a high of
31°C. As a reminder, the country's average mean annual temperature in 2020 was
27.1°C.
Today's Earth is the sweltering planet some scientists predicted should
have appeared by 2026 at the latest. Why? Because the world reached 1.2°
Celsius of warming in 2020. This means there's now a 90% chance of exceeding
the red-line threshold 1.5°C of warming before 2026.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 saw the international community pledge to keep
global temperature rise this century well below 2.0°C above pre-industrial
levels to keep climate change in check. This level was later modified to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels.
The strident warning issued in June 2021 by the WMO, a specialized agency
of the United Nations, confirmed the world reached 1.2°C of warming in 2020.
The WMO warning is far worse than the conclusions of a paper published in
the weekly scientific journal Nature in 2018 that predicted the world reaching
1.5°C of warming by 2030. It's also more disheartening than the estimate made
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that this red line
might be reached by 2040.
The heat will only get worse
In May 2020, the World Economic Forum issued a report saying that by 2070,
3.5 billion people might be forced to endure unlivable heat in places that will
become as hot as the Sahara Desert (30°C mean temperature) is today.
It projected the world's mean annual temperature jumping to 29°C compared
to 13°C today, a level far outside the livable climatic envelope of human
development. By 2070, the world's population is estimated at 9.5 billion
compared to today's 7.6 billion.
This dire forecast spells out what's in store for one in three people in
the world unless countries take decisive action to control global warming. The
report said less than 1% of the Earth's land surface currently experiences
climate where the mean temperature is 30°C.
By 2070, almost 20% of the Earth's land area will be affected by this higher
temperature. Also by 2070, the average person will be living in temperatures
7.5°C hotter than pre-industrial times if climate change goes unchecked.
And then, there's Lucifer to contend with. Hell is in our future.
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| Sahara Desert esert |
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